As fans wait for the Senators’ season to resume, it is easy for the mind to drift onto the player personnel side of things and project what the Senators could look like next season.
Jake Sanderson is one prized piece that will be penciled into the lineup as soon as his season in North Dakota concludes. If there can be a silver lining to this string of games being postponed for the Senators is that it may afford Shane Pinto more time to recover from shoulder surgery. The later this season goes, the greater the opportunity for him to get into some late-season games and carry that positivity into the offseason.
Aside from those two prospects, it is hard to look at the talent available in Ottawa’s system and confidently state that there is another prospect who will definitively be a good and productive player on next season’s roster. Maybe there is a chance that a Jacob Bernard-Docker or a Lassi Thomson can get there since both have played games this season, but that feels far from a sure thing.
An unexpected name that fans can start considering is Andrei Kuzmenko. The undrafted Russian is lighting up the KHL this season with 20 goals and 53 points in 43 games for SKA St. Petersburg.
Kuzmenko is a righthanded shot, but he has experience playing on both wings. He turns 26-years old next month, but he’s at an age that should fit in well with the young core that the Senators have assembled.
Injuries have forced the Senators’ hand and allowed them to slide Tim Stützle to the centre position where his play has improved markedly with the change. Increased defensive responsibilities and a higher volume of puck touches have afforded Stützle more opportunities to impose himself and take advantage of his skillset. His performance has improved so much that it feels reasonable to project him playing centre moving forward.
With Josh Norris and the aforementioned Pinto already solidified as two young and capable two-way centres, Stützle’s emergence gives the organization a lot of talented depth down the middle. The only downside to this is that it impacts Ottawa’s skilled depth on the wing.
Drake Batherson and Brady Tkachuk are entrenched as a top-six forwards, but beyond them, there is not a ton of NHL-ready skill.
Many look at Alex Formenton’s speed and his ability to create offence off the rush, but for me, too much of his offence is created off these individual efforts. In an appearance on Steve Warne’s ‘Sens Nation’ podcast, I likened that ability to Anthony Duclair’s. Formenton’s a vastly superior defensive player while Duclair has a better shot and set of hands, but I just believe that both players generate a lot of one-and-done chances.
The proof is in the numbers as Hockeyviz.com’s five-on-five isolated offensive impact profile shows.
Although Formenton’s speed and ability to generate scoring chances off the rush are electric and easily noticeable to the eye, I don’t believe he has enough offensive upside to play in the top-six. If Formenton can develop his game and find a way to create more offence away from the rush through sustained offensive zone pressure, there’s a chance he can get there.
Right now, I believe he profiles very well as a third-line left-winger who is reliable defensively and adds some depth scoring.
Without Formenton in the top-six or Stützle in the top-six as a winger, it creates a skill void at that position. After Connor Brown had a successful 2020-21 campaign in which he shot 17.1-percent, his shooting percentage has not only regressed to career norms but his shot rate has cratered.
Last season Brown generated 7.38 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time per NaturalStatTrick.com. This season, that rate has essentially been halved to 3.51.
Like Formenton, Brown’s probably best served to play a third-line two-way role.
If the Senators are going to improve and take that next step towards competing for the playoffs, the organization will have to improve the quality of its wingers and adding a player like Kuzmenko is an attractive solution.
At his age and with his performance in the KHL, he is an established professional who will not cost his acquiring club anything but money. The Senators will not have to trade assets or use a draft pick to acquire his rights, they simply have to provide Kuzmenko with an appropriate blend of cash and opportunity.
It is easy to dismiss the idea of the tight-pursed Senators spending money, but CapFriendly.com projects the Senators as having $50.8 million committed to players next season and with more than $30 million in cap space, the Senators will have to spend money to round out the roster and help them reach the cap floor.
There should already be some familiarity with the player considering the Senators signed teammate Artyom Zub from SKA St. Petersburg in 2020. Perhaps Zub’s integration and success during his time here could help influence Kuzmenko’s decision.
Although it has not really impacted the team’s amateur scouting and draft selections, I wondered whether Zub’s success would create this watershed moment in which it would help spur more interest in Russia. Historically, the Senators have shied away from drafting Eastern Europeans who weren’t already playing in North America. The last Russian to be drafted by the Senators out of his motherland was Vitali Anikeyenko in 2005.
Whether it is a coincidence or a function of having a small scouting staff, I am hopeful that the success of Zub will create this trickle effect that encourages the organization to turn over more stones overseas.
Hopefully, it culminates with Kuzmenko signing a deal with the Senators. It certainly appears like he has the offensive skill to help the club.
In their current situation, the Senators have the flexibility to give Kuzmenko a two or three-year deal. Obviously, the player is not without risk, but the Senators should have the cap flexibility to roll the dice here — especially since none of the team’s current prospects should really be viable threats to displace him in one of the next two seasons.
I’m not indoctrinated to this idea that the organization needs to preserve cap flexibility to keep their best young players in the fold. At this stage, I just simply don’t believe that enough of Ottawa’s young talent has shown enough to really break the bank and put the organization in a tight spot financially. Without a premium offensive talent and with Thomas Chabot already signed to a team-friendly deal, nobody’s breaking the bank here. Concerns that Ottawa could eventually have a Toronto Maple Leafs situation here are overblown. (Or worse, could be used to help suppress pressure on ownership to spend and help make this team more competitive.)
General manager Pierre Dorion appeared on ‘In the Box’ this week and told hosts Steve Lloyd and Graham Creech that he has already reached out to Kuzmenko’s agent Dan Milstein to express interest in his client.
“You might be reading my texts because I was just texting with the agent last night about (Kuzmenko). Peter MacTavish, myself and Dan Milstein were all texting about setting up a meeting and selling that we would definitely be a very good destination for Andrei Kuzmenko.”
Ottawa’s going to have some competition for his services, but having a chance to play and grow with this likable young core has to be enticing.
Another Melnyk Ownership Rumour
For the better part of the past decade, rumours of Eugene Melnyk’s waning financial worth and the sale of the Ottawa Senators have dogged the conversations involving the hockey club.
Years of neglect and poor leadership have eroded confidence in the owner’s ability to build and deliver a winner. And worse, the owner has failed to preserve fundamental relationships with season ticket holders, employees, the local media, politicians, alumni, and the local business community.
Whenever a new rumour surfaces, it generates clicks and traffic by creating a sense of optimism but having been burned so many times before, there’s a boy who cried wolf phenomenon at play. Senators fans should never be blamed for their reserved skepticism.
This brings us to the latest bit of news coming out of the Quebec-based sports gossip site called Dans Les Coulisses.
The article was written in French, but according to their source, Eugene Melnyk has recently been approached by a group looking to buy the Ottawa Senators. The group is allegedly being fronted by an unnamed majority stakeholder, but Daniel Alfredsson and Chris Phillips were highlighted as names involved with the group.
The rumour is a Senators fan’s wet dream.
CapFriendly.com lists Alfredsson and Phillips’ career worth at approximately $67.5 and $26.9 million respectively. It is a nice chunk of change, but not enough to have significant ownership stakes in a prospective purchase. The Senators legends could wind up being minority stakeholders, but it would make more sense if the two simply figured prominently as ambassadors for the incoming regime.
It is no secret that both players had prominent roles — Phillips in the organization’s charitable arm and Alfredsson working in the front office — before deciding they had grown tired of the bullshit.
For their respective returns marking the sale of the Ottawa Senators sounds like a prophecy out of some hockey fan fiction tale.
Only when the Crowe flies over LeBreton Flats, a restaurant returns from the Marsh, and the Firestone shines brightly again shall a Leeder bring a flood of bodies to a mile of the Elgin. The bells will ring out over Parliament Hill no sooner than 11:04 to dawn a true era of unparalleled success.
It makes sense for Alfredsson and Phillips to be part of a purchase. Even if they’re just endorsing a prospective new buyer, just having these two legendary figures included would help instill confidence and a sense of order after a Melnyk era characterized by chaos and embarrassment.
The big question is, how likely is a sale to happen?
The simple answer from me is, I don’t know.
In saying that however, it would be foolish to ignore how ripe the timing is for a change.
The pandemic has to leave the Senators hemorrhaging cash. The season set holder base has eroded for years, putting a large amount of pressure on the organization to sell tickets for games and as the average attendance figures bear out, people aren’t compelled to go to games with all of the recent factors at play.
The return of former CFO Erin Crowe also turned heads. Crowe resigned from her role in 2015 after spending 18 years with the organization.
At the time of her resignation, Wayne Scanlan wrote:
“Erin Crowe has been one of the Senators star players, performing economic gymnastics to keep the books balanced and ensure the hockey club could manage its commitments and debts.”
The Senators announced Crowe’s return on December 3rd and according to the press release, she will officially “rejoin the Senators on Feb. 1, 2022, after having previously spent a portion of her career with the organization from 1996 through 2014.”
For Crowe to make her return now is interesting. There have been rumblings that she was brought back to help square the books and shore up the financials for a potential sale. On the other hand, she has added the title of executive vice-president to her name, so maybe her return was driven by this additional title.
Whatever the case, it is just the latest shake-up in the front office and there may be more to come per Wayne Scanlan.
“In recent weeks there has been widespread speculation of a makeover at the top of the Senators organization. As well, multiple sources have confirmed that an investigative media story is in the works related to the way in which the club conducts its business at the highest levels.
Amid this talk, change is already afoot in the executive offices. Chief financial officer Gregg Olson and Jeff Morander, vice president of ticketing, hired just 12 months ago, are both gone, fitting a common pattern in the organization. Executives quietly leave this team within a year or two and the revolving door swings.
…
The list of departed executives is lengthy, dating back to franchise co-founder Cyril Leeder, the longtime president and CEO, let go in January 2017, in part for going to bat for O’Leary.
In the past five years, the club has burned through top executives – Tom Anselmi, Jim Little, Nicolas Ruszkowski and Aimee Deziel as well as numerous chief financial officers.
I am told there is more change to come.”
The business side of the Senators’ operations is perpetually stuck in a state of turnover, so if there is more to come, I’m not surprised.
That kind of environment helps fuel questions about structure and cohesion and how long a disjointed front office can function until it all collapses in on itself like a house of cards.
Despite all of the changes over the years, ownership has endured through it all.
In saying that, it is hard to ignore how some developing outside factors could help influence and facilitate that change.
Thanks to the NCC’s decision to launch a request for expressions of interest to build major attractions on two separate parcels of land at LeBreton Flats, it has reopened the conversation about a prospective downtown arena for the Senators. To this point, the Senators owner has failed to leverage his hockey club and find a developer to build a rink at no cost to him, but many believe that the NHL may have to step in to help this dream be realized.
Media figures with large platforms like Elliotte Friedman and Ian Mendes have openly discussed this possibility and I believe that is important. It never would have happened in years past and represents a marked change.
Speaking of media reports, in Scanlan’s article, he confirmed rumours of an investigative piece on the Senators that is expected to be published on The Athletic. A piece was written about the Arizona Coyotes’ stewardship and financial problems and if that is the basis for this article, one has to wonder how potentially damaging it could be to the organization and its owner.
Throw in the impending civil litigation with John Ruddy and it certainly feels like it could be a perfect storm kind of situation that could spur a sale.
The rumours are swirling and Ian Mendes has already confirmed that there are “multiple ownership groups that are waiting in the wings and would happily step up and purchase this team if it was actually on the market.”
Wishful thinking or not, the end feels closer than ever.
Other News and Notes:
Jake Sanderson has accepted an invitation to represent the United States in the Olympic men’s hockey tournament.
Filip Gustavsson has been returned to Belleville. With the uncertainty of games in Ottawa, I understand the need for the young goaltender to play and play often. As much as I enjoyed Anton Forsberg’s run and the team playing some competitive games, one of the unfortunate consequences was seeing Gustavsson be stapled to the bench. Matt Murray and Forsberg are not viable long-term strategies for the goaltending position. The Senators need to assess what they have in Gustavsson and in Belleville, he’s only going to cut into Mads Sogaard’s playing time. These two young goaltenders should be the future and both deserve games.
Thank you for your excellent reporting. We resided in Ottawa '99-07. Became dual citizens. Son married, and we returned to New England. Grandsons took a while, but we'll not return to Canada. There is a hometown charm to Ottawa, and we miss it. Simmer, Gord & Dean, Creech, Lloyd, and others are good fun. One request I've made on Twitter to some of them is to read up on the effects of alcohol. It is now accepted that it increases the risk of several cancers. It is still glorified in many discussions on Team 1200. Steve Kurtz, Amherst MA (yes I saw Cale Makar play in the arena 2 miles from our home!)