Josh Norris Inks 8-Year Extension Worth $63.6 Million
The Ottawa Senators announced Thursday afternoon that their star centre, Josh Norris, had put his signature on an eight-year contract worth $63.6 million. Not only does it mean that the Senators have bought out the prime years of Norris’ career, it also means that the Josh Norris face tattoo guy can breathe a sigh of relief.
It is fantastic news for the Senators to lock in their first-line centre to a deal that pays less than $8.0 million a year and keeps him under Brady Tkachuk’s seven-year, $8.2 million AAV figure.
With the cap expected to escalate two years from now and likely increasing thereafter, the Senators have locked Norris up through his age 23 through 30 seasons.
Around the Senators’ corner of the internet, I have seen some tweets from a few influential people kicking around the idea that a bridge deal would have been preferable.
Ideally, the Senators could have been able to sign Norris last offseason when he was first eligible for an extension, but after the player made it known that he preferred to wait until the end of the season, the cards were out of the Senators’ hands. To Norris’ credit, the bet on himself paid off and after a 35-goal and 55-point campaign, he earned himself significantly more money than people were projecting a year ago.
The hesitancy to lock a centre up for that money and term is understandable on some levels. The Senators recently just bought out Colin White from the seven-year, $28.5 million contract that they awarded him following his rookie campaign in 2018-19. Norris may also eventually get surpassed in the pecking order with Tim Stützle looking like the most dynamic offensive centre the team has. With Shane Pinto also expected to arrive in camp healthy and ready to push for a regular turn of duty, he’s a prospect who has the pedigree and possesses many of the same qualities as Norris.
It is far too early in Pinto’s career to project him as assuredly having more upside than Norris, but with the way some people speak of him, it’s a testament to the Senators’ young depth at the position.
Perhaps the idea of paying Norris to be one of the team’s top-two centres for the foreseeable future is concerning based on this fear that the team could run out of cap space at some undisclosed point in the future when the team is better and depth pieces are destined to command more money.
If Tim Stützle has a strong season playing in between Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux, it is totally within the realm of possibilities that Jimmy Stü has a fantastic season or two and makes a strong case for becoming the Senators’ highest-paid forward.
Teams always have to be mindful of tight internal budgets and evaporating cap space in this system, but the organization can still rid itself of some bad money (ie. Nikita Zaitsev, Travis Hamonic, its multiple buyouts, Cam Talbot, etc.). The good news is that most of this money is of the short-natured variety. With the exception of Colin White’s buyout, which is relatively inexpensive clocking in at under a million dollars, this money will be off the team’s books after the next two seasons.
Investing in your best young players is rarely a bad investment. In Norris’ case, I believe there’s enough history over the last two seasons to suggest that it was a reasonable bet.
Norris’ calling card is his finishing ability and as a career 18.8 percent shooter, it is encouraging to believe that his knack for finding the back of the net is not some aberration. Even with some regression of last season’s 20.3 mark, Norris can find opportunities to score if the Senators do a better job with their team defence.
The organization has made it known that it is exhausting its avenues hunting for a top-four defenceman to slide in alongside Jake Sanderson. Provided this duo flourishes and complements the team’s top-pairing of Artyom Zub and Thomas Chabot, the Senators may finally have taken the necessary steps to improve its blue line. If this group does a better job with its puck retrievals and movement, the collective should benefit from spending less time defending within their own zone — which has historically been one of the team’s undoings over the past few seasons.
By spending more time with the puck, it should translate to more opportunities in the offensive zone where Norris will have a chance to rack up points at five-on-five.
Some may look at his breakout sophomore season as proof that Norris is a power play specialist, but his rookie campaign demonstrated that he could play at even strength as well.
Looking past the offence, the exciting part is that Norris has demonstrated that he can defend capably — which is something that Stützle will need to build on. Jimmy Stü’s transition from the wing to the centre position went about as well as it could have. Not only did it put him a better spot to receive the puck and drive the offence through the neutral zone with his elusiveness and creativity, but it also forced him to become a more engaged player in the defensive zone — rather than just someone who waits along the wall to fly the zone and receive a stretch pass.
The early returns on Stützle were promising, but I believe Norris is still the more complete player at this stage. Being older and more experienced probably helps, but if Norris is one of your top-two options, you are doing pretty well.
Had you asked me last summer as to what kind of contract I was hoping for out of Norris, I would have said something along the lines of seven years and $45.5 to $49.0 million at an average annual value of $6.5-7.0 million.
For Norris to come in at less than $8.0 million AAV is not that significant of a jump, especially given his production against quality competition across the last two seasons.
It may seem like a lot of money now, but with all expectations for the salary cap to jump significantly two years from now, there is a relatively strong chance that Norris’ contract will look more efficient over time.
Perhaps most importantly, it is encouraging to see this team’s young players commit to the franchise beyond their restricted free agent eligible years. For the organization to extend Tkachuk and Norris and buy up their best unrestricted free agent years, it is an encouraging signal to the players and to this fan base.
I certainly do not want to validate or promote this unproven perception that American-born players will be more reluctant to stay in Ottawa because of their roots, the organization’s locked up two of their more important pieces. Whether it helps influence players like Shane Pinto, Jake Sanderson or most importantly, Alex DeBrincat next season, it certainly cannot hurt.
If this group is as tightly knit as people close to the team believe, it should help the organization and serve as a recruiting tool to encourage people to come here or stay.
The Search for a Defenceman Continues
Yesterday the New Jersey Devils dealt Ty Smith and a third-round pick in 2023 for Pittsburgh Penguins defenceman John Marino.
Marino was someone that the Senators reportedly had a lot of interest in. As a right-shot defenceman who is about to enter just the second year of the six-year deal he signed in 2021, Marino was appealing. Between his play, a relatively affordable contract ($4.4 million AAV) and his controllable term, he would have made a lot of sense for the Senators.
Now with him off the market, it remains to be seen where the Senators go from here.
They have been linked to defenceman Jake Chychrun and MacKenzie Weegar. For me, the latter is preferable given the opportunity cost that Arizona will be looking for and the fact that the Senators will have to be comfortable using Chychrun exclusively on his off-side.
On the other hand, there is no guarantee that Florida will decide to move Weegar. The Presidents’ Trophy winners may decide it is in their best competitive interests just to hold onto Weegar and let him hit unrestricted free agency in 2023 than move him now.