Josh Norris Deserves More Credit
Josh Norris’ rookie season has been relatively unheralded.
It’s not Norris’ fault. Teammate Tim Stützle has captured the majority of the headlines and attention because of his pedigree, tantalizing skill and meme-ability whenever he’s in frame with Brady Tkachuk. Hell, Norris does not even bear the distinction of being the crown jewel of the Erik Karlsson trade.
Quietly though, Norris has put together a really impressive rookie season.
Heading into Saturday’s action, Norris had recorded 12 goals and 25 points through 44 games. Only Kirill Kaprizov (35) and Jason Robertson (30) have recorded more points. Norris’ 11 power play points are tied for the lead among all NHL rookies and he’s four back of Kaprizov for the NHL rookie lead in goals.
Norris is currently riding a four-game point streak, but with four goals and six point in his last six games, he is on fire right now. Not long ago, there was doubt amongst the amateur scouts questioning whether Norris’ offensive upside was strong enough to warrant projections of him being a top-six centre. Over the first 44 games, I think Norris has shelved whatever concerns there once were.
If Norris’ production rates held up, over the course of a full 82-game schedule, he would be on pace for 22.4 goals and 46.6 points. Just to put that into perspective, only eight Senators rookies have ever recorded 40-plus points in a season: Colin White (41); Martin Havlat (42); Brady Tkachuk (45); Mike Hoffman (48); Alexandre Daigle (51); Daniel Alfredsson (61); Mark Stone (64); and Alexei Yashin (79). Of those players, only Havlat and White failed to crack the 20-goal mark, so Norris is in some really good company here in terms of production.
The offence is not a fluke either. Even though Norris is shooting at a 15.8-percent success rate, his shot is good enough to beat some goaltenders clean.
Norris was also an incredibly efficient shooter in the AHL last season scoring 31 goals on 160 shots (19.8 Sh%).
Even if Norris experiences some regression in his shooting percentage, he can increase his goal output simply by shooting more. Getting moved to the team’s first power play unit may should provide the opportunity he needs to generate more individual chances.
Perhaps most importantly, Norris is still bringing a strong defensive element.
Using HockeyViz.com’s visual tools, it is easy to see Norris’ isolated impact in the defensive zone.
In recent history, the Senators have had no trouble finding good offensive talent. Too often however, that offensive talent has struggled to impact the game away from the puck. Not surprisingly, the team has exhibited a willingness to play high-event hockey over the years to combat it. It has led to some entertaining hockey, but no one will mistake any of Ottawa’s teams from the last 15 years of being defensive juggernauts.
To look at the youth of a Norris and see what kind of impact he’s had at both ends of the ice, it is reassuring to see. If you look at Norris’ contributions, the staunch defensive play of a Nick Paul and recognize the presence of Shane Pinto or the flexibility that Colin White provides and it easy to get excited about the defensive value that the Senators have added down the middle of their lineup. Assuming the team can continue to build out the back end, there is no reason to believe that the team’s collective defence will not improve significantly as this team’s youngest players continue to adjust.
Other News and Notes:
- Senators prospect Shane Pinto will make his highly anticipated debut today in Montreal. At practice yesterday, Pinto skated on a line between Alex Formenton and Connor Brown. For a first game, that is a pretty soft-landing spot.
- The rest of the lines are as follows:
Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson
Stützle-White-Dadonov
Formenton-Pinto-Brown
Paul-Tierney-Dzingel
- On defence, Nikita Zaitsev is back in the lineup after missing the last game. It appears that Jacob Bernard-Docker will come out of the lineup to accommodate Zaitsev. It is disappointing to see Bernard-Docker watch from the press box in a meaningless down the stretch game for the senators. Josh Brown certainly does not warrant an extended look at this juncture of the season, but one game out of the lineup certainly isn’t going to adversely affect Bernard-Docker’s development.
- The Senators announced that they have signed Cole Reinhardt to an entry-level contract. Reinhardt was the Senators sixth-round pick (181st overall) in the 2020 NHL Draft. In 21 games with Belleville this season, Reinhardt has scored three goals and added four assists.