Jake Sanderson's Torrid Start and How He Can Continue to Grow
When it comes to Jake Sanderson’s development, the conversation entails more than the efforts of his Movember mustache.
21 games into his NHL career, Sanderson has fulfilled the hype. Any concern that the fifth overall pick from the 2020 NHL Draft could be overwhelmed logging top-four minutes behind Thomas Chabot have been erased.
At just 20 years old, it is not easy entrusting a rookie defender to shoulder the responsibilities and workload of that role. In Ottawa, they simply had no choice. Sanderson was thrust into that role because of his pedigree and the simple fact that there were no credible alternatives.
Rather than being content to survive in the NHL and try not to look out of place, Sanderson has quietly emerged as the team’s best and most complete defender.
The defenceman has registered 11 points (1 goal, 10 assists) while averaging 20:59 of ice time per game. Only four rookies have scored more points than Sanderson and only Buffalo’s Owen Power (23:35) has averaged more ice-time per game. There is a chance that Sanderson can close that gap. In Sanderson’s last 12 games, Sunday’s overtime win against the Kings was the only game in which Sanderson recorded fewer than 20 minutes. Some of this extra responsibility was created out of necessity because of Thomas Chabot’s concussion, but there is no question that the coaching staff is leaning on Sanderson more heavily to distribute the workload a little more evenly.
The Senators’ shot and goal data for when Sanderson is on the ice is encouraging. At five-on-five, the Senators have generated 52.17 percent of the shots (CF%), 50.00 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 54.98 percent of the scoring chances (SCF%), 58.06 percent of the goals (GF%), and 52.29 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) per NaturalStatTrick’s data.
Adding some context to Sanderson’s game, JFreshHockey’s rates his contributions into percentiles.
Considering how often prospect pundits wondered how Sanderson’s offensive game would translate to the pro level, these numbers are exceptional. Sanderson will probably never be a threat to shoot from the blue line, but he creates enough from his skating and puck distribution skills to generate point production.
The surprise is that his defensive numbers have not eclipsed what he has been able to do offensively, but it may be a greater reflection of the team’s poor defensive play than anything Sanderson is doing specifically.
One of the biggest detriments to Sanderson’s defensive zone play has been the performance of his partner, Travis Hamonic.
Coupling the highest five-on-five shot rate of Hamonic’s career with his second-highest shooting percentage and it’s no surprise to see his goals per 60 and finishing percentiles that high. What is concerning is that for a traditional defensive defenceman, his defensive metrics are horrifically poor.
HockeyViz.com emphasizes the defensive shortcomings of Hamonic by isolating his defensive impact while looking at the amount of expected goals given up by the Senators when Hamonic is on the ice versus the average NHL defenceman.
Inside the defensive zone, the Senators give up a ton of chances in the dangerous areas of the ice when Hamonic is on the ice at five-on-five.
To put things into contrast, here is a look at what Sanderson’s isolated impact at five-on-five is.
It is a marked difference between the two players considering that Sanderson has played 256 even-strength minutes alongside Hamonic. When the pair has been on the ice at five-on-five, the Senators have generated 50.90 percent of the shots (CF%), 47.40 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 51.40 percent of the goals (GF%), but 48.68 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). If not for the fact that Ottawa’s goaltenders have stopped 92.98 percent of the shots when they have been on the ice, their numbers as a pair would look even worse.
So when Sanderson’s upside is discussed, a lot of it focuses on where he is going to be once he becomes more physically mature and adds a bit more size and strength to his frame. The natural progression of learning the league, the habits of the opposition, and just becoming more comfortable playing NHL games will also go a long way in helping his development. The greatest obstacle might actually be just finding a capable defender who can bring out the best in Sanderson’s game and allow him to take his game to a whole other level.
In small sample sizes away from Hamonic, Evolving-Hockey’s defensive pairing tool shows the Senators’ performance with Sanderson’s next two most common partners.
Those pairings have spent a period of hockey or less playing together, but even though those numbers are not sustainable, it is enough to dream of what kind of upside Sanderson will have when he matures and has a talented defensive partner. I’m not a fan of hanging historical comps on a player, but if everything breaks right, it is not hard to envision Sanderson having a Scott Niedermayer-esque impact on this blue line. Between his smooth skating, puck-moving ability and ability to defend, it is only a matter of when, not if, Sanderson entrenches himself as the best player on the Senators’ blue line.
Tyler Boucher Suspended Two Games
Senators prospect and Ottawa 67s forward Tyler Boucher was suspended two games for his involvement in a fight against Sudbury’s Marc Boudreau this past Sunday.
Boucher was responding to a hit by Boudreau on a vulnerable Brady Stonehouse. It is awesome to see a player stand up for a teammate who is the recipient of a dirty hit, but every league is cracking down on players repeatedly feeding turtling players while they are vulnerable on the ice.
Formenton Deadline Looming
Tomorrow’s 5 pm deadline is when the Senators (or another NHL club) has to come to terms on a contract with restricted free agent Alex Formenton.
On Sunday’s broadcast in Los Angeles, Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch indicated that Dorion has been seeking out trade partners in hopes of swapping him for a defenceman.
If the Senators are non-committal in signing the player because they are awaiting the investigation into the Hockey Canada sexual assault results, what rival general manager will willingly move a desirable asset to acquire a third-line player who may ultimately be implicated — especially after the Boston Bruins tried to sign Mitchell Miller to an entry-level contract?
It just does not seem plausible. The only thing that I can see the Senators do is hold onto Formenton’s rights and await the investigation’s results.