Injuries to Ottawa's Young Talent Fosters Different Uncertainties
When Shane Pinto returned to the lineup Saturday against the Pittsburgh Penguins, it signalled a much-needed moment of optimism.
Some of the air was let out of the balloon as Pinto left the game after just four minutes and 51 seconds of ice time and headed to the Senators’ dressing room clutching his shoulder.
It was easy to fear the worst and during his ‘Question Period’ segment on TSN’s broadcast yesterday, Bruce Garrioch indicated that the expectation is that Pinto’s injury will necessitate surgery and he will likely be lost for the remainder of the season.
After the conclusion of Erik Brannstrom’s 2020-21 season, this was not the start he or anyone else was hoping for.
Even with a relatively strong preseason that head coach D.J. Smith believed showcased Brannstrom’s puck-moving ability and confidence with the puck, Brannstrom was somewhat of a victim of circumstance.
With another undersized defenceman in Victor Mete possessing many of Brannstrom’s qualities, D.J. Smith’s reluctance to dress two smaller puck-movers worked against Brannstrom.
Thomas Chabot is entrenched on the first pair, but veteran defencemen Nick Holden and Michael Del Zotto were acquired during the offseason and congested the left side of the blue line. Despite the appearance that Brannstrom had outplayed some of these peers during the preseason, his two-way contract afforded the Senators some flexibility and he was assigned to Belleville.
Injuries and ineffectiveness of the team’s bottom-two pairings would eventually necessitate Brannstrom’s recall, but after just two games with the Senators, Brannstrom sustained a broken hand in Thursday night’s game against the Kings.
Dreger’s report was a surprise considering that Brannstrom logged 18:56 of ice time and his final shift occurred during the last minute of play in the third period. Having already lost defenceman Artyom Zub earlier in the game, Brannstrom may have felt compelled to tough it out given the already depleted lineup.
D.J. Smith indicated Saturday morning that Brannstrom will be out for the next two months.
Losing Pinto and Brannstrom for any length of time is devastating for a number of reasons. There is the lost development time for both players in what is widely considered a lost season for the Senators. Their 4-10-1 record has placed them at the bottom of the league’s standings. Only the Arizona Coyotes have a lower points total than the Senators.
The opportunity to play and develop without significant pressures or limitations is important and at least in the case of Pinto, he presented himself as a viable candidate to log significant minutes playing as the second-line centre.
Pinto’s one assist through five games was modest relative to his impacts on the ice per HockeyViz.com.
The Senators were better offensively when Pinto was healthy. Although it was a small sample size of data, in Pinto’s five games, NaturalStatTrick’s five-on-five data shows that Pinto was leading the team in individual expected goals for per 60 (ixGF/60) and individual scoring chances for per 60 (iSCF/60).
Pinto’s play was promising and it alleviated any concerns about having to go out into the market and find some additional centre depth. Now with the expectations that he will miss the rest of the regular season, it raises questions about how the Senators will address the centre position.
Obvious concerns have to be given to the performance of Ottawa’s other young talent. The start to Tim Stützle’s sophomore season has not gone the way that anyone has hoped. In 15 games, the left-winger only has one goal and six points — with all but two of those points occurring on the power play.
In Pinto’s absence, Stützle has bounced around the lines and his production has dropped. Without the goals, he just has not displayed the kind of confidence a player with his skill should have. Notching the first goal of his season on Saturday will hopefully give Stützle a spark, but it’s hard to ignore how his shot rates are all down from last season.
Blame the talent surrounding, blame shaken confidence and blame his deference to pass. Ultimately, I think Stützle will be fine once the talent around him improves and he gets stronger and more confident, but with so much of the team’s future success invested in him as a player, the Senators need to ensure his development progresses.
It puts the team in a difficult spot.
Aside from the league’s bottom-feeders, no franchises are really engaged in trade talks involving moving a quality centre at this point in the season. The time for that was the offseason when teams were looking to cull their rosters and salary for the expansion draft.
Without knowing who is available on the market now, it is difficult to say what the Senators should do or what they should be willing to spend. What the organization has to be cognizant of is this significant risk created by their position of need. The Senators simply have to avoid overspending in assets, term and money for an inconsequential player who may not even improve the performance of those around him.
Erik Brannstrom’s situation is different. No one can be certain of his future. Called up out of necessity because of the performance of the veterans ahead of him, Brannstrom, like Ottawa’s LRT, will be shut down for the next six to eight weeks with no guarantees of improved performance there forward.
A lot can happen in two months. Brannstrom will certainly need a conditioning stint in Belleville, but there is no guarantee that there will be a place for him in Ottawa’s lineup at that time.
Like Colin White who lost the majority of his season to a shoulder injury, this may have represented Erik’s last opportunity to prove he has a future in Ottawa beyond this season.