One quick glance at the Senators’ lines from this morning’s skate is all anyone will need to identify the latest weakness on the Senators’ roster.
According to D.J. Smith, Alex DeBrincat’s status is uncertain for tonight’s game, but hopefully, it is just a small maintenance issue that will not hamper his ability to play tonight or allow him to return in the near future.
Even with a healthy DeBrincat, having a left side of Dylan Gambrell, Tyler Motte and Derick Brassard is not particularly ideal. Gambrell is just depth fodder who is filling a hole. He is likely in his spot as a placeholder to allow Motte and Brassard to continue to play in their respective roles.
Offensively, Motte and Brassard have fared relatively well given their role. Brassard has contributed four goals and eight points in 19 games while playing depth minutes and logging some time on the team’s power play. On the surface, Motte’s production has been a little bit more modest. He only has two goals and eight points in 26 games this season, but like Brassard, his individual underlying numbers show that with better luck, he would have more points.
NaturalStatTrick’s data shows that Brassard (1.09) and Motte (0.95) average close to an individual expected goal of 1.00 per 60 minutes of five-on-five hockey. Among all qualified players, they rank third and sixth respectively in this stat.
The reality for either player is that they are both on one-year contracts and neither should really be considered part of the team’s long-term future. They are veteran stopgaps who afford the organization time to find younger and more talented alternatives who hopefully arrive at an inexpensive cost.
After being waived yesterday by the Nashville Predators, the only thing that left winger Eeli Tolvanen will cost is money.
In the middle of a three-year contract that carries a real dollar and average annual cap hit of $1.45 million, the Finnish forward’s availability represents an intriguing opportunity for the Senators.
Drafted 30th overall in the 2017 NHL Draft, Tolvanen generated a ton of buzz through his production as an amateur with the Sioux City Musketeers of the USHL. In Tolvanen’s draft year, he compiled 30 goals and 54 points in 50 games.
The following season, Tolvanen returned to his native Finland to begin his professional career with Jokerit in the KHL. As a teenage rookie, he tallied 19 goals and 36 points in 49 games and was named to the KHL All-Star Game. His offence carried over into international play where he represented his country at the World Juniors (1 goal, 6 points in 5 games, named as one of Finland’s three best players), Olympics (3 goals, 9 points in 5 games), and World Championships (2 goals, 4 points, 4 games).
Tolvanen’s play garnered a lot of attention and fuelled his hype within the prospect community. Eventually, when Tolvanen arrived in Nashville however, the production has not matched the expectations.
In playing parts of five seasons in the NHL, Tolvanen’s best season came in 2020-21 when he scored 11 goals and 22 points in 40 games. He would essentially match those totals the following season with 11 goals and 23 points. Unfortunately, Tolvanen put up those numbers while playing in 35 more games.
This season, Tolvanen has played sparingly, appearing in 11 games with the Predators while scoring two goals and adding two helpers.
The production levels are a far cry from what was expected of Tolvanen given the skillset he displayed across various amateur and professional levels. Aside from the NHL, Tolvanen’s had success producing wherever he has been, including the AHL where he has produced 36 goals and 71 points in 121 games.
Perhaps he will never fulfill the offensive expectations placed on him earlier in his career, but the now 23-year-old could be the ideal post-hype sleeper that a team like the Ottawa Senators could afford to roll the dice on.
The offence may not be what was desired, but been a positive offensive contributor at five-on-five these past two seasons. The Senators’ strength thus far during the 2022-23 season has been the ability of their top-nine to generate offensive chances, so if they believe they can tap some of that potential by slotting him into their top-nine, the organization may be the ideal landing place for him.
What is intriguing is that Tolvanen’s isolated defensive impact per HockeyViz.com has been quite strong for the Predators.
Historically, the defensive impact holds up too.
If there are any concerns about his ability to put up offensive numbers, they are buoyed somewhat by his ability to defend. Knowing this, Tolvanen does not exactly have to be earmarked for a top-six role. He can play capably on the third line and allow the team to slot Motte further down. Considering Ottawa’s depth at the position and there being no certainty in regards to the future beyond this season with Motte, Gambrell, Brassard and even Formenton and DeBrincat, this is the gamble that the Senators should be making.
The blend of offensive and defensive ability is intriguing enough on its own, but once you consider the team control and inexpensive contract in addition to the depth questions at the position moving forward, it becomes a no-brainer. Dorion should be jumping on this.
Strongly agree, Graeme. 23 is young enough for him to make a significant change for the better. And the Sens lack depth all around.