During the broadcast of last night’s 5-2 win over the Washington Capitals, TSN ran their ‘Insider Trading’ segment that featured some news on the Senators’ Artyom Zub.
When asked for an update on the contract negotiations between the two parties, Chris Johnston had this to say.
“Well, I’d say there’s been some contact, but nothing we might call a negotiation when it comes to a new contract for Artyom Zub. And you’re right, it’s not to say that it’s going to escalate at this point in time. There’s plenty of time between now and next summer when he comes an unrestricted free agent. But, this is not going to be an easy player for the Ottawa Senators to keep. He’s a right-hand shot. He plays top-pairing minutes for this team. He’s become wildly popular and I would imagine if he would ever get to the market months from now, he would be popular there to. Ottawa’s got some difficult decisions to make. They had a busy summer. They have Alex DeBrincat’s situation to come up with and then Artyom Zub is also a question mark for that franchise.”
The right-shot defenceman is currently in the last year of the two-year deal that he signed in May of 2021. Zub’s contract carries an average annual value of $2.5 million but paid him $1.75 million in the first year and $3.25 million this season.
Having turned just 27 years old at the beginning of October, Zub’s in line to command a nice raise on his next deal. Teams are always looking to add competent right-shot defenders to their mix.
Zub is second on the Senators in average ice time. The defender has averaged 20:55 per game behind Thomas Chabot’s 25:33. Through four games, Zub is in the league’s top 10 for average even-strength ice time.
Zub has developed into a cult figure in Ottawa because of his play and the pure joy people get chanting his name at home games.
The secret of Zub’s value is making its way around the league, however.
As the HockeyViz.com graphic shows, Zub’s isolated impact value is slightly below average, but his defensive impact is where the true value lies.
And that true value may be more important to the Ottawa Senators than any other NHL team.
Without him, the Senators do not have anyone on their roster who can safely replace the value that Zub is providing now. I feel comfortable believing that Lassi Thomson and Jacob Bernard-Docker can become NHL regulars, but the questions become, how long is that process going to take and how impactful are these two going to be with their minutes?
Management and Ottawas’ player development staff will have to project forward and figure out what they have, but even if both players pan, holding onto one of the team’s best defenders is of significant importance to preserve the quality of the roster — especially as the team desperately wants to take a step forward and play meaningful games down the stretch.
What could help is news out of the recent board of governors meeting that league revenues are rising and if player escrow is paid off as it is currently projected, the salary cap could rise ahead of schedule by $4 million next season.
"We believe that there's a good probability that the escrow will be paid off this season,” said Gary Bettman. “Which means the flat cap would be replaced by a bigger increase."
It was believed that the league would continue to use a flat cap for the next few years out of necessity because “the players owed an estimated $1 billion in debt to the owners due to the teams' COVID-19 pandemic revenue losses.”
Once that debt is paid off, the salary cap will return to its computational link to revenues.
In other words, if the salary cap rises, it will give every organization a little bit more flexibility to spend more money on its roster composition. Obviously, for a smaller market club like the Senators, the organization’s internal budget is usually lower than the cap ceiling. Suppose fans and corporate sponsors continue to return in droves to support this young group. In that case, it stands to reason that the team’s revenues will increase as well — potentially opening up avenues to help insulate this young core with more talented players.
The Senators will need the coin. If Jarmo Kekalainen and the Columbus Blue Jackets are willing to burn money like the Joker in The Dark Knight by signing a 30-year-old Erik Gudbranson, teams will be lining up to sign Zub next summer.
Expected Goals
Small sample size be damned, the Senators’ forwards are killing it.
Using Evolving-Hockey’s data and line combinations tool, it is easy to see how efficient Ottawa’s top three lines have been.
Ottawa’s top two lines have been exceptional - which is incredible considering how Tim Stützle and Josh Norris flipped lines at the end of the preseason.
After a rough first two games, it is surprising to see the metrics where they are for the Senators’ third line. Their shot generation has not been at the level of the top-six, but in terms of goal-scoring and generating expected goals based on the quality of chances, they have fared very well.
As a collective, the play has been strong and the team results at five-on-five have been impressive.
Granted, it is a small sample size of games and the quality of competition early has not been particularly strong, but these are some really encouraging signs in the early going. If this trend can continue and Pierre Dorion can somehow find a way to bolster the blue line with a quality player, the Senators will have a strong group that should push for a playoff spot.
Tyler Boucher’s Hot Start
After a lost development year last season, 2021 first-round pick (10th overall) Tyler Boucher has started his OHL season strong with the Ottawa 67’s.
After a nondescript start to his NCAA career at Boston University, Boucher left college to join the 67’s, who owned his OHL rights. In 24 games for the barber poles last season, Boucher posted a pedestrian seven goals and 14 points.
Boucher looks poised to shatter those marks in quick order. In five games this season, he already has scored five goals while adding two assists. What is more encouraging is that his shot generation rate has also gone up.
After averaging 3.3 shots per game last season, Boucher’s rate is up to 3.6 shots per game this year.
Boucher may ultimately have a hard time living up to expectations placed on prospect who was drafted in the top 10, but the results in the early going here are promising. It was not his fault that the Senators rolled the dice on a big forward who experienced some setbacks because of injuries.
If Boucher can hone his offensive game while being the physical elements that he was drafted for, he could wind up being a useful and unique player for the organization down the road. We just need to be patient and not place unfair expectations on the individual because of where he was drafted.
Yes, I agree about Boucher. He seems to have a had a very good summer of training and development and we are seeing an improved player this fall. Long may it continue.
Regarding Zub, the Sens should be on that right now. DeBrincat is important, but as an RFA the Sens can take all summer to negotiate with him if need be. For Zub, they need to get him locked down before he gets any ideas about testing rhe market.
In the event that, JBD and Thomson both turn out great and Zub is signed long term that gives the Sens trade options. The is very little downside to signing Zub long term and a lot of upside.