Free Agency & Thoughts on the Draft
On the eve of unrestricted free agency last summer, there was a surreal feeling around Ottawa knowing that the rumours linking Claude Giroux were close to being realized.
Almost one year later, there is nowhere near the same level of anticipation because no one really knows what the Senators are going to do.
The team got its day off to a flying start by signing defenceman Erik Brannstrom to a one-year deal worth $2 million.
It was a bit of a breakout season for the Swede who had struggled to earn regular playing time in each of his previous three seasons. Brannstrom is a unique player in the sense that he developed into an analytics darling while not really putting together a season that will turn heads because of the lack of production.
Brannstrom had a significant impact on his team in the offensive and defensive zones per HockeyViz.
When he was on the ice, the Senators generated more shots and expected goals while suppressing them on defence. So much so, that it really is quite surprising how the counting stats that get players paid do not reflect how well he performed. In 74 games, the defender registered two goals and 18 points.
Brannstrom deserves full marks for arriving in great shape. It was obvious that he worked hard on his skating and strength during the offseason. His extra step of quickness and acceleration paid dividends in his ability to break the puck out, elude forecheckers and navigate the neutral zone with puck control.
It was a marked improvement from his previous years.
With only one good year under his belt, it is easy to understand why the organization was hesitant to give Brannstrom a multi-year deal. If he has a setback, the Senators can balk at qualifying him as a restricted free and move on. The wrinkle is that if he has another good season, he will only become exponentially more expensive next summer. Had the Senators signed Brannstrom to a multi-year deal, they would have been able to save themselves some money that could be reallocated towards addressing other areas of need.
Of course, a multi-year deal would carry risk. Brannstrom’s shortcomings are obvious. As an undersized defenceman, Brannstrom relies on his gap control, skating and stick to defend. Although he is competitive and engages in puck battles, he still struggles against bigger competition along the wall and in front of the net. Those weaknesses may not seem that important during the regular season when the team is outside the playoff picture, but in the postseason, they will be magnified.
Thanks to the graduation of Tyler Kleven to the professional ranks and his unique skillset relative to the other defencemen in Ottawa, Brannstrom’s days may be numbered and that could be reflected in today’s announcement of a one-year deal. In another show-me year for the player. If he plays well, he could sign an extension, but it feels like he could be used as a trade chip.
Josh Bailey Linked to the Senators
Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch believes that Josh Bailey could be of interest to the Senators.
“It makes sense because he played for Smith in Windsor, and former Isles head coach Jack Capuano is on Ottawa’s staff.”
Bailey certainly played under D.J. Smith and Jack Capuano, unfortunately, like many of the other ineffective veterans management has brought in at the encouragement of its scouts coaching staff, Bailey isn’t particularly good.
In 68 games last season with the Isles, Bailey tallied eight goals and 25 points.
He has not been good in quite some time, but 2022-23 was his worst NHL season in terms of his ability to impact the game offensively and defensively.
I am all in favour of leveraging previous relationships to attract talent to Ottawa or in a perfect world, getting it at a less expensive price. Under no circumstances should it be used to acquire players of Bailey’s calibre. And, especially with the Senators needing to bolster its depth.
An unfortunate shortcoming of the Dorion era has been to overly rely on the input of his coaches when making player personnel decisions. It was problematic during the Guy Boucher era and it has been a problem during the rebuild. The only issue with the latter is that no one really cared or paid attention because the team was purposefully trying to lose games.
Although it is entirely possible that this is just Garrioch spitting out some ideas of his own, if the Senators ultimately did land Bailey, it would a sobering realization that the mistakes that have plagued this organization for the last seven years are still being made and the use of analytics isn’t efficiently being used to recognize and mitigate bad decisions. Bad decisions at a time when this team’s margin for error is at its smallest. If the playoffs are the goal, this organization should be doing everything within its power to exhaust every avenue before turning to Bailey.
Islanders Targeting DeBrincat
After Elliotte Friedman reported that the Detroit Red Wings are no longer the perceived favourite to land Senators winger Alex DeBrincat, The Fourth Period’s Dave Pagnotta is reporting that the Islanders “have kicked tires on DeBrincat.”
If teams outside those who were listed as his preferred destinations begin to express serious interest, that is a huge development for Pierre Dorion. That it involves the Islanders is even better because Lou Lamoriello is not shy about moving significant opportunity costs if he really likes a player. The Islanders sent a considerable package to the Canucks for Bo Horvat this past season and in 2020, Dorion dealt Jean-Gabriel Pageau for a substantial return.
Whether the two can work some more magic in 2023 remains to be seen, but it is worth mentioning that the Islanders have Scott Wheeler’s 27th-ranked system before this week’s draft. William Dufour could be an intriguing addition, but after the Horvat deal sent Aatu Raty to Vancouver, there are not a ton of high-upside pieces in their system.
As a group that is built to be competitive now, the Islanders are one of the oldest teams in the league and if you’re in a position to add some valuable draft currency down the road, banking on this group to regress and bottom out in the near future could be a shrewd gamble.
Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reported that the Senators are looking to get back NHL-ready help than build a return exclusively around futures.
“Sources say the Senators would like to get back someone who can offer immediate help as part of the return for DeBrincat.”
Looking at the Islanders’ roster, there are not a ton of upside plays to get excited about. The majority of the roster is on the wrong side of 30, but Noah Dobson would be the lone exception as a 23-year-old right defenceman. As the youngest and best piece of their blue line, I simply can’t imagine that Lamoriello would willingly part with him to add DeBrincat.
Senators 2023 Draft
The Athletic’s Corey Pronman gave the Senators the lowest letter grade (C-) with Boston, Florida, and Edmonton in his post-draft analysis. Fans have been sensitive towards The Athletic’s draft pundits for their lukewarm assessments of the Senators’ drafts in years past, but this year was different. Given that Ottawa only had five selections and all of them occurring in the fourth round or later, that was to be expected.
Pronman’s explanation hit the nail on the head.
“Ottawa didn’t pick until 108. I didn’t mind the pick of Hoyt Stanley there — he’s toolsy — but Senators fans I’m sure are realistic that this draft class isn’t likely to deliver much for their future.”
That isn’t to say that there is not some intrigue with the class. The team’s first selection (4th round, 108th overall), Hoyt Stanley, was Scott Wheeler’s 98th-ranked prospect heading into the draft.
Wheeler’s profile of Stanley sounds encouraging.
“Stanley, a Cornell commit, was the best under-18 defenceman in the BCHL this season to earn a spot on the league’s All-Rookie Team after missing most of last season with a concussion. He’s a long, mobile, pro-sized right-shot defenseman with impressive skating technique, an ability to handle and maneuver with the puck on his stick, and a better shot than his four goals this season indicate. He’s still a little raw in some areas but I expect him to blossom into a standout college defenseman as an upperclassman. He projects as a two-way puck transporter and I see legitimate NHL potential.”
The rest of the class reads as follows:
Fifth Round, 140th overall: Matthew Andonovsky - LD
Seventh Round, 204th overall: Owen Beckner - C
Seventh Round: 207th overall: Vladimir Nikitin - G
Seventh Round, 215th overall: Nicholas Van Tassell - RW
It is hard to get too excited over the addition of a bunch of late-round fliers, but I like the roll of the dice on an Eastern European goaltender who may have fallen through the scouting cracks.
Other News and Notes:
The Senators officially revealed their 36-man development camp roster. The camp will officially begin on Sunday, July 2nd and it features 18 drafted players and 18 undrafted invitees. Of note, four of the five members of the team’s 2023 draft class will be there.
Jacob Bernard-Docker has signed a one-way, two-year extension with the Senators worth $805,000 per year.