Evaluating the Dzingel Upside Play & other news and notes
When it comes to discussing the Ottawa Senators’ pro acquisitions over the past six months, Pierre Dorion has taken his fair share of heat. Although most of the organization’s young players have taken measured steps in their development, some of the criticism is deserved. Many of the front office’s moves to supplement their collection of young forwards just have not worked out.
That is not to dismiss all of Pierre Dorion’s moves as being bad. Austin Watson has played competently on the team’s fourth line and as penalty killer. Artyom Zub has been a revelation on the blue line and the recently acquired Ryan Dzingel has turned back the clock and rediscovered his productive past.
Acquired for Cedric Paquette and Alex Galchenyuk, the Senators modestly rolled the dice on the possibility that Dzingel’s speed and goal-scoring ability would play up in Ottawa’s lineup.
It was a great bet. Dzingel’s surface numbers were down, but he was still an efficient shooter. In the 96 games that he played in Columbus and Carolina, Dzingel scored 14 goals on 133 shots (10.5 Sh%). With a career shooting percentage of 14.3-percent, Dzingel was below that mark but he was still relatively efficient.
The real difference is that since joining Ottawa, his rate numbers have spiked.
Using Evolving-Hockey.com’s data, it is easy to see that Dzingel’s shooting percentage is unsustainably high which helps explain why his goals rate of 2.46 is nearly triple what it was earlier this season in Carolina. What is intriguing however is that Dzingel’s shot rate has tripled as well. So, even when Dzingel’s shooting percentage inevitably drops, this spike in volume should theoretically allow him to keep contributing — especially as someone who has typically had success getting chances.
For the Senators, Dzingel’s production could not come at a better time. With less than a month to go before the April 12th trade deadline, some outside organization may be willing to move an asset or two to bolster their secondary scoring depth.
It is not uncommon for Senators fans to ask whether it would be better just to hold onto that secondary scoring depth themselves. Why not simply re-sign Dzingel because he seems more comfortable and more productive playing in Ottawa.
Hot stretches of unsustainable play will make any player feel more comfortable, but what is interesting with Dzingel is how little offensive impact he has had away from his goal production.
Using HockeyViz.com’s isolated impact graphic, we can see where the Senators are generating unblocked shots with Dzingel on the ice. The red denotes where the Senators are getting a significant volume of those shots and the majority of them are coming from Dzingel’s wing at a distance of 15-30’ away from the opposition’s goal.
Although Dzingel’s shot rates have spiked, it would appear that when he’s on the ice, most of the shots the Senators take are his and they are not considered particularly dangerous because of the distance in which they are taken. Of particular interest are the very dark regions of blue colour denoting well-below average shot rates from the slot, crease and right wing areas.
Having watched the games and Dzingel’s play, what I infer from the visual and my eye-test is that the majority of his chances come off the rush. As I noted earlier, Dzingel’s biggest strengths are his shot and speed, so similar to Anthony Duclair, Dzingel generates offence through a lot of one-and-done shot creation. In other words, if his line is not generating chances in transition, there simply is not a ton of creation done in the offensive zone through passing or sustained cycle play.
A deeper dive looking at Dzingel’s underlying metrics support this argument.
Although the Senators have generated more shots on goal with Dzingel on the ice at five-on-five, NaturalStatTrick.com shows that the Senators have been outshot (49.73 CF%) and outchanced (47.67 SCF%) while allowing more goals (44.44 GF%) and expected goals (48.45 xGF%).
Historically, it is the same pattern of play that allowed the Senators to move on from Dzingel at the 2019 trade deadline without missing a beat. Dzingel does not drive or sustain play and his impact within the defensive zone is minimal.
All of Dzingel’s value lies in his off the rush ability, but his offensive impact is not significant enough to merit consideration as a player that the Senators should be desperate to lock up. Dzingel will turn 30 years old next season and he is reaching that age where players start to lose a step and the risk of diminished returns can be expected.
An extension is something that the Senators should be looking to avoid. The risk of
the organization has already lucked out once before.
The intent of Garrioch’s tweet may have been designed to make the player look foolish for turning down that deal, but it also glosses over the fact that the organization made an equally foolish offer. The Senators lucked out in having the player walk away and they should be looking to move him now.
With Brady Tkachuk entrenched on the first line coupled with the organization’s hesitancy to give Tim Stützle reps down the middle, it would appear that the team’s first two left wing spots are already accounted for. Although he has slid over to the centre position, Nick Paul is another two-way player who is cheaper and should hold more overall value than Dzingel over the next few years. Perhaps most importantly, the Senators have an NHL-ready prospect in Alex Formenton who also generates many individual chances with his speed.
Even if Dzingel was considered to play his off-side, he is not supplanting Drake Batherson, Connor Brown or Evgenii Dadonov either.
Despite ownership’s very public messaging that this team would be positioned to spend to the cap ceiling, this small market team continues to operate with the thinnest of margins. Every organization should be looking to avoid locking themselves into multi-year deals with depth players, but when you have Ottawa’s limited resources, it’s that much more important.
Let some other organization overpay for a small sample size of games.
Formenton Recalled… Watson Done?
After blocking a shot on Monday night, Austin Watson left the game against the Calgary Flames and was seen at practice today wearing a cast on his left arm.
With only 22 games left on the schedule, there is a chance that Watson’s season could be over. It would be disappointing end for a player who arrived without much fanfare and exceeded everyone’s expectations.
Watson brought the intangibles and physicality that the Senators sought, but he wasn’t a defensive liability. According to Evolving-Hockey.com’s total defense (DEF) metric which combines even-strength defence goals above average and shorthanded defence goals above average, Watson was one of Ottawa’s most impactful defensive players. (Note: Nick Paul leads the Senators in DEF.)
To fill Watson’s spot, Alex Formenton was recalled by the Senators and will make his 2020-21 season debut Wednesday against the Flames.
Thoughts on Calgary Trying to Keep the Game Puck
In the aftermath of Monday night’s game, there were a lot of vitriol directed at the Calgary Flames for attempting keep the game puck away from the Senators at the final buzzer.
Admittedly, it looked pretty dickish to try and get away with something like that, but considering how are plenty of classless things that are said or done over the course of a game, I don’t mind the gamesmanship.
Filip Gustavsson ultimately got his puck and like Brady Tkachuk taking the puck at the end of Cayden Primeau’s first win in Montreal, Rasmus Andersson is pleading ignorance - claiming that his actions were unintentional.
Whatever the case, I loved seeing the young guys like Brady Tkachuk and Josh Norris being the ones engaged in trying to recover the puck. the event adds a very much needed “Fuck those guys!” element to what would otherwise be a meaningless game against Calgary in the middle of March. If Ottawa can hurt Calgary’s playoff odds and also cause Eric Francis to overreact, it’s an added layer of awesomeness.
Draft Lottery Odds Change
News that the board of governors were pushing for changes to the NHL Draft Lottery odds and the league formally announced the revisions today.
The league always seems to be reactively tinkering and this time it is doing so after a play-in team — the New York Rangers — won last year’s lottery.
From the league’s official press release, the following changes were announced:
(1) Number of Lottery Draws Reduced
The number of Lottery Draws will be reduced from three to two. This will limit the number of selections the worst finishing Club can drop in the final Draft Order. Whereas, currently, the Worst-Finishing Club can drop from the First Overall position to the Fourth Overall position in Draft Order (as happened in each of 2017, 2019 and 2020), the lowest the Worst-Finishing Club could drop would be to the Third Overall position.
(2) “Move-Up” Limitation Set
There will be a limit on the total number of selections – 10, a Club participating in the Draft Lottery can “move up” in the event it wins one of the Draft Lottery Draws. The result will be that the number of teams eligible to select First Overall in any given year will be reduced from 16 total teams to 11 total teams.
(3) Limit on Teams Winning a Lottery Draw
No single team will be able to advance in the Draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two (2) times in any five (5) year period. This limitation will not affect a Club’s ability to retain its presumptive Draft position in any Draft Lottery, nor would it preclude the possibility of the Club moving down in Draft Order to the extent other Clubs advance by reason of winning the Lottery Draws. For purposes of clarity, the limitation would attach to the team, not the specific pick.
In the past few years, teams like the Senators and Red Wings have dropped a few spots after having the league’s worst record. Under the new rules, the worst record in the NHL is now guaranteed to have nothing worse than the third overall pick.
The third rule is particularly interesting simply because not every draft is the same. I know the intent of the rule is to stop rewarding franchises that are stuck in perennial mediocrity, but a draft headlined by Nico Hischier is not the same as one headlined by a Connor McDavid. In knowing how much disparity there can be between classes, I’m already looking forward to the first instance in which a team is prohibited from moving up to the first overall pick in a generational talent’s year because they won the right to pick a lesser talent in a previous year. The amount of angst coming out of it is going to be incredible provided that it’s not Ottawa that gets punished here.