In a hilariously well-timed announcement, the Pittsburgh Penguins announced shortly before the Maple Leafs were to hold Brad Treliving’s press conference that former Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas would be the team’s next president of hockey operations.
The announcement was a surprise given some rumours that Dubas had allegedly turned down a role with the organization after meeting with them last week. I suppose technically, he did not land the general manager’s job. He simply took a promotion.
Considering the speculation that Dubas was eyeing a role with the Senators pending the sale of the team to new ownership, today’s announcement may be disappointing for fans who were hoping to see an experienced and fresh voice arrive and lead the front office through what should be some significant change.
As a manager who has overseen the creation, development and integration of a robust analytics department that uses proprietary data to augment the work of the scouts and coaching staff, it is easy to understand why Dubas has desirable qualities as a prospective candidate.
Dubas’ record was not unblemished, however. As much as I believe he represented an upgrade on what’s in place now, his decision to join the Penguins is hardly a disastrous event for the Senators’ front office plans.
Although Dubas is a strong communicator who represents the modern era of hockey front offices, there are plenty of other smart hockey minds out there who have similar experiences. After being passed up by the Penguins for the general manager’s role, Carolina’s Eric Tulsky is destined to run an organization at some point in the near future. Seattle assistant general manager Alexandra Mandrycky is another who worked for the public hockey analytics site ‘War-on-Ice’ and was a data analyst for the Minnesota Wild.
Those are just two names in a league that is becoming more and more progressive with its front offices. In the hilarious words of @deuceAO, we don’t need to act like Dubas is “the only one with a calculator.” Targeting front offices from Carolina, Seattle, Dallas and New Jersey for prospective hires would bolster Ottawa’s front office.
The more troubling short-term issue is that the Senators’ sale continues to drag on. Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch is reporting that a preferred buyer could be identified in the next few days, but that a formalized agreement could take two to three months to iron out.
In a process that blows through deadlines faster than Pierre Dorion blows through second-round picks, the next ownership group may not get the keys to this car by the time training camp rolls around.
Why is that important?
Although Neko Sparks’ bid has not been attached to any prospective managerial candidates, Michael Andlauer’s has been linked to Steve Staois. Tom Apostolopoulos is being advised on hockey matters by Nick Kypreos. The Kimel brothers reportedly have a preference for a robust front office that relies on analytical data and analysis to shape their decision-making. There is a reasonable expectation that whichever group ultimately buys the Senators will bring in their own handpicked staff.
If Dorion and this front office are lame ducks, they will continue to operate through important dates in the offseason calendar like the NHL Draft (June 28th-29th) and the opening of free agency. The Senators have some important decisions to make on Alex DeBrincat and on how to best augment the young core that is already in place. There is also the potential fallout from the Hockey Canada investigations that could impact the team further.
Expecting continued growth out of the team’s youngest players is one thing, but for a team with playoff aspirations, the Senators need to get more out of their group. A healthier lineup would help bolster the status quo, but banking on avoiding injuries to key positions in this physical sport is naive.
Using CapFriendly’s roster-building tool, a 16-player roster as constructed below costs approximately $69.2 million.
Tkachuk - Stützle - Giroux
LW2 - Norris - Batherson
Greig - C3- Joseph
Smejkal - Kastelic - RW4
Chabot - Chychrun
Sanderson - Zub
Kleven - RD3
Forsberg
Sogaard
It feels like a reasonable projection of what the Senators could look like and would give the Senators about $14.26 million to extend Alex DeBrincat at LW2, Shane Pinto as the C3 and Erik Brannstrom as the RD3.
Assuming the status quo is preserved and the Senators bring these players back, it does not leave a ton of wiggle room to bolster the team’s depth — especially if the organization wants to add a veteran goaltender.
DeBrincat’s willingness to sign an extension could create some financial flexibility, but if an incoming ownership group wants to bring in its own people, this ongoing sale could put the organization in a position where a lame-duck general manager would be responsible for his contract negotiations, a potential trade return and other tough decisions.
Depending on Dorion’s interests, this could be a fascinating and potentially series of events.
This uncertainty is obviously not ideal, but it is a feeling that Senators fans have grown accustomed to.
Apparently, Mattias Nordstrom and several other former NHL players have some involvement in the Neko Sparks bid.
However, when it comes to replacing the Senators current management, I would suggest that the term "lame duck" is wish-casting on the part of the author. The new Sens owner could well integrate their hockey people into the Sens currently fairly thin front office.
FWIW, Garrioch has stated that all the bidders were aware when they submitted their bids that current management would be running this off-season.