If you are surprised that D.J. Smith is still the head coach of the Ottawa Senators, you are not alone.
Ottawa’s 8-9-0 record puts the team last in the Atlantic Division and last in the Eastern Conference based on points. The Senators have played the fewest number of games in the league, however, so if you prefer to use points percentage as a more accurate barometer of where the team resides, they are only second last in the conference behind Friday’s opponent, the Columbus Blue Jackets.
If management had designs of relieving Smith of his duties, the team’s hapless 5-0 loss to the division rival Panthers represented the perfect opportunity.
Chants of “Fire D.J.” rang down from the rafters in the waning moments of Monday’s game and with a few days off before two winnable games against the Blue Jackets and Kraken this weekend, if the Senators were going to mercifully end Smith’s tenure and give their next head coach a soft start to get off on the right foot, this was the opportunity for it.
There was Smith Tuesday morning, however, running practice and putting his players through the paces in preparation for their two games this weekend.
No one could blame fans for wondering what the organization was waiting for.
The first two months of the season were pretty favourable. From November’s soft slate of games to the fact that the Senators have played 13 home games (that includes two in Sweden) to four road ones, the advantage was there for the taking. After the first month, however, the head coach expressed satisfaction with a .500 record.
“We wanted to be .500 or better in October,” Smith told reporters on October 31st. “November is a very important month.”
The Senators will conclude November with a 4-5-0 record (.444).
For a team that entered the season with playoff aspirations, hearing the coach acknowledge a modest .500 goal for the month of October — especially given the softness of the schedule — was embarrassing. It is possible that D.J. was simply trying to downplay his culpability for the results, but in Ian Mendes’ latest, he was accepting all of the responsibility for where his team is positioned now.
“We have to get better. As a staff, that’s on me. There’s no one else to blame but me,” said Smith. “You can say my staff, but I’m the one that’s in control. And it’s on me to get the best out of the players, the staff, everyone.”
Injuries have assuredly played a part in the Senators’ struggles, but websites like NHL Injury Viz have done an excellent job contextualizing how Ottawa has fared relative to their peers who have experienced a similar volume or calibre of players affected by injury.
Six teams have experienced similar or worse levels of lost player value due to injury than the Senators, but each of these teams has performed better.
When the team is underachieving and those who have experienced similar hardships are finding better results, what exactly is management waiting for?
The underlying metrics speak for themselves.
The Senators rank in the lower third of the league in a number of important five-on-five defensive metrics via Natural Stat Trick:
45.42 xGF% (28th)
48.12 CF% (22nd)
62.61 CA/60 (25th)
3.15 GA/60 (28th)
It is ugly. To add more context, when using Evolving-Hockey’s and sorting Ottawa’s five-on-five team data over the last five seasons, the Senators have averaged 63.82 shot events (CA/60) and 2.92 expected goals allowed (xGA/60) this season. Both rates represent the highest rates allowed by any Senators team during the five years that D.J. Smith has coached.
Despite significant improvements to this team’s true talent level, they have not produced better defensive metrics. They have somehow become worse.
So, what exactly is management waiting for?
The reputations of Michael Andlauer and Steve Staios precede them. They have often been portrayed as calculated and measured individuals who will patiently gather as much information as they can before acting or making a decision.
It always felt like it was just a matter of time before the remnants of the Melnyk era would be removed from the picture. But, I’m honestly surprised that former general manager Pierre Dorion remained in his role as long as he did.
When Andlauer met with Dorion over the Evgenii Dadonov trade to discuss his role and lack of due diligence, the general manager resigned and Staios inherited that role on an interim basis.
One of the things that Staios preached at that press conference was the importance of organizational stability. Given the nonsensical impulsivity that characterized the Eugene Melnyk era and plagued this franchise, we all get it. Shortly after that press conference, Staios met with the players to address the change.
“Inevitably every team is going to face adversity. We got hit with a lot of adversity in a short period of time. I thought it was the right thing to do to address the team and let them know that, ‘Hey, this is adversity that we’re facing,’ and it’s my job to eliminate some of that noise for them and create the environment and stability where they can just go out and play.”
I don’t believe that relieving Smith of his job would negatively impact that stability. The players may enjoy playing for a player’s coach, but Smith is in his fifth season at the helm and there has not been any real progression in how this team defends or plays as a collective unit.
Stability is never created by holding onto individuals who produce mediocre results simply because they are popular in the dressing room. That’s how a player like Travis Hamonic winds up with a two-year deal and full no-movement protection.
Stability permeates organizations from the top down and with Andlauer and Staios in the fold, those are two foundational pieces that will be here for the long haul. It is far too early to judge Andlauer and Staios for what has transpired on the ice, their professionalism, courtesy and diligence are an encouraging departure from the previous regime.
Although both individuals may be wary about fostering more change so early in their respective tenures, they absolutely should not be afraid of enacting change if they believe it can positively improve the team’s short and long-term interests.
What may make sense is that management wants to afford Smith an opportunity to coach a healthy roster. Another possibility is that they may already have prospective general manager and head coach candidates earmarked. The lack of hiring news may simply be a function of these individuals not being made available at this point of the season because of their responsibilities or the unwillingness of their clubs to allow them to interview at this time. If the organization wants to cast a net as wide as possible to ensure the best candidates are available, it may have to wait until the offseason.
A workaround for the coaching predicament is that the Senators could offer an interim coaching job to some veteran options who want to get back in the league. Possibilities could include Claude Julien, Jacques Martin and Bruce Boudreau.
I do not know whether any of those candidates would be willing to accept an interim job, but an interim coach would protect the Senators in the event better candidates become available or if the team continues to underperform.
An interim tag may not sound too enticing on the surface, but if the coach enjoys success, it does have the potential to create a ton of leverage. It would either put a ton of pressure on Ottawa to retain a familiar voice or it could spur outside interest. Either way, the interim coach would be looking at a more expensive payday.
Hello,
I enjoy you columns a lot.
Is it possible that the new ownership does not want to be swayed by common practice in the NHL, which is to relieve coaches quickly? In general, most teams have stable owners and these teams are not worried as much by stability. This does not apply to the Sens who have been somewhat of a chaos organization up to now. This is quite evident by the last several months of PD making random hockey decisions. So I understand that they might not want to appear as chaotic as the previous regime. I too think this coach should go but could it be possible that they will be more directive with him now as to force certains. At least in the short run or to finish this year. I would not be surprised they have not already wrote off this season.
Thank you for your insight.
Daniel