Digging Into the Stats: Josh Norris' 30-goal Season
With his hat-trick on Sunday afternoon, Josh Norris became the latest Senator to record 30 goals in a season.
It has been 10 years since linemates Milan Michalek (35) and Jason Spezza (34) matched the feat during the 2011-12 season. Only three players in franchise history had eclipsed the 30-goal mark while being 22 years of age or younger. On Sunday, Josh Norris joined an elite company. Before his hat-trick, only Marian Hossa, Martin Havlat, and Alexei Yashin had scored 30 or more goals while being 22 years of age or younger. (As an aside, the record for goals by a Senators player aged 22 or younger is 32 by Marian Hossa.)
It is a pretty impressive group of names there who carried a lot of offensive pedigree as prospects. So, maybe that is why it feels so incredible to see Norris put up the lofty numbers that he has. Off the top of my head, I cannot recall watching a Senator enjoy a stretch like this in which the shots just felt so efficient and well-placed. It’s like every chance that he gets is put on the net for a quality scoring chance.
Just to put into a historical perspective how productive Josh Norris’ season has been, he has 30 goals in his first 52 games. During the 2005-06 season in which Dany Heatley had his first 50-goal season with the Senators, he scored 33 in his first 52 games.
Looking through Evolving-Hockey’s data, Norris’ goal rate is through the roof. He is averaging 1.88 goals per 60 minutes of ice-time (all situations). From the start of the 2007-08 season when these public sites started capturing data, it is tied for the 21st-highest rate recorded for a skater who has logged over 500 minutes of ice-time. The rate puts him in a select group of players that reads like the who's who of this modern era’s greatest goal scorers. Norris’ rate is up there with Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, Matthews, Stamkos and Draisaitl.
It has been a ridiculous season for Norris, but nothing has been more automatic than his shot from the right circle on the power play.
Delving into the Evolving-Hockey’s numbers a little more, Norris’ production on the power play is almost unprecedented in the modern puck era. With the exception of the season that Chris Kreider is putting together right now, no one has had as good a season on the power play as Norris.
Just think about that statement for a second. Think of all the offensive superstars that have played in this league over the past 15 years and realize that only one person has averaged more goals than the 5.55 goals per 60 minutes of power-play ice-time that Norris has put up.
It is bonkers.
Without worrying too much about sustainability, Norris has always been an efficient shooter. Inevitably, there will be a regression in his shooting percentage, but he can offset that change with increased shot volume. As more opponents focus on taking away time and space for Norris, it will afford more opportunities for his linemates.
Ultimately, the organization and the player have to be thrilled with his performance this season, but for Norris in particular, he has to be ecstatic that he did not sign a contract extension before the season. With the season that he’s currently enjoying, he would have cost himself millions of dollars.
In what was already setting itself up to be one of the most important summers for the Ottawa Senators in recent memory, getting Norris’ signature on a long-term extension is going to be at the top of general manager Pierre Dorion’s list of things to do.
Other News and Notes:
Speaking to Chris Stevenson and Steve Lloyd on TSN 1200’s ‘In the Box’ this morning, Troy Mann confirmed that Viktor Lodin was on his way to Belleville to join the Senators in their AHL playoff push.
Ahead of tonight’s game against the Montreal Canadiens, the Senators have recalled Parker Kelly. Anton Forsberg will get the start in goal.