It was never an easy start to the 2020-21 season for Derek Stepan.
Acquired on December 26, 2020 from the Arizona Coyotes for a 2021 second-round pick, Stepan did not join the Senators immediately because of the birth of his third child.
Missing a training camp will negatively impact any player’s integration and immediate performance, but that was especially the case for the 30-year old centre. In his previous two seasons, Stepan failed to record more than 15 goals and 35 points. It clearly looked like he had entered the diminishing returns stage of his career.
That never stopped Senators from trading a valued asset to acquire Stepan believing him to be a character veteran who could still play at a relatively high level. That high level never materialized and despite generating some chances, Stepan was struck with some unfortunate on-ice luck.
In 20 games with the Senators, Stepan recorded his only goal in the team’s first game. He added five lowly assists, so on the surface, the numbers looked terrible. A deeper dive into his underlying numbers however show that the player was a victim of bad luck.
In using HockeyViz.com’s isolated impact visuals, Stepan came out looking good.
According to NaturalStatTrick.com’s data, Stepan generated the third highest shot rate on the team (9.63 shots/60) and had the fourth-highest individual expected goal rate (0.78 expected goals/60) — trailing only Brady Tkachuk, Colin White and Drake Batherson.
Looking at Ottawa’s roster and production, that is some pretty good company. So, what went wrong?
When Stepan was on the ice at five-on-five, the Senators only shot 5.3-percent. Of the Senators skaters who have played more than 120 five-on-five minutes, Stepan’s mark was the lowest on the team. Without publicly available tracking tech data indicating what kind of velocities were on Stepan’s shots, it is hard to pinpoint whether there was an underlying issue with his release or ability to get quality shots off. In watching the games however, it looked Stepan had lost some heat on his fastball. Truth be told however, had Stepan or his teammates buried their greater share of chances, the back of his hockey card statistics would look much better.
Stepan’s bad luck would eventually end his season. The Senators announced today that the veteran centre would miss the remainder of the season to undergo shoulder surgery.
From the official press release:
"Following a review and assessment by the team's medical staff, it has been determined that Derek requires a surgical procedure to repair a damaged labrum that he incurred in dislocating his left shoulder," said Senators general manager Pierre Dorion. "A procedure is scheduled to take place later this week which will see him miss the remainder of our season but it is expected that he be fully recovered ahead of next season. Our medical staff will remain in regular contact with Derek and his doctors as he continues his recovery."
Rumours of unhappiness dogged Stepan for a few weeks during the season. Even though the organization and the player downplayed his unhappiness or desire to be moved back closer to his Scottsdale home, everyone should be empathetic towards a player who is so far removed from his family and newborn. If there is a silver lining to Stepan’s injury, it is that this affords him the chance to return home earlier.
For the Senators, it is a blow in the sense that Stepan looked to be gaining momentum with his play. Given the player’s cap hit ($6.5 million) and low production totals, Pierre Dorion’s phone was probably never going to be blowing up with offers from his peers. But, at least it was starting to look like the Senators might be able to get something, anything, for Stepan.
And that was the underlying intent from the moment that the Senators pulled the trigger on the deal. Armed with three second-round picks in the 2021 NHL Draft, the Senators parlayed their surplus believing that Stepan could help the team and recoup an asset later in the year.
Like it or hate it, that was the rationale. It never mattered that Stepan looked to be a diminishing asset or that in the current NHL economy with so many teams near the cap ceiling, that Stepan’s cap hit would likely hinder his market even if he performed well. Nor did it matter that Arizona was pushed up against the cap ceiling and were susceptible to being leveraged to get out from under the last year of Stepan’s contract. These factors were either ignored or were simply never weighed properly.
Can there be a silver lining for the organization?
As one Twitter follower (@JohnVogt13) pointed out, Stepan’s LTIR status may actually help the team.
It is a fair point. For teams that are pressed against the cap ceiling that simply do not have a ton of financial wiggle room, acquiring Stepan makes sense. It would be reminiscent of how Senators traded Mike Condon and Anders Nilsson last offseason to the Tampa Bay Lightning for a second round pick and Cedric Paquette and Braydon Coburn. By acquiring Stepan in exchange for a draft pick and a sizable cap casualty who is signed to a short-term deal, any acquiring team could reallocate the cap hit belonging to Stepan to bring in a much more talented player. This is the kind of market that the Senators should be exhausting to recoup a valued pick or prospect and add more depth to the Senators’ farm system.