Burning Questions Facing the Ottawa Senators After 20 Games
"'You're never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you're never as bad as they say when you lose.' ~ Lou Holtz
The Senators have been doing their fair share of losing and as they hit the 20-game mark and quarter-pole of the season, this season has simply not gone the way many had envisioned.
Entering the season, expectations were relatively low. Following a quiet offseason that failed to insulate the young core with stronger talent, fans understood that — whether it was out of necessity or by design — the budget-conscious Senators had to put young talent in a position to play and play a lot.
While the lack of quality depth, especially on the blue line, it was understood that this team’s success would be predicated on how far this group of young players could carry it.
For this team to be competitive and make those progressive steps needed to inch closer to playoff contention, many things would have to go right.
Through 20 games, not much has gone right.
The team has been unable to stay healthy. Brady Tkachuk’s contract negotiations dragged into the season and he has not played his best hockey yet. Injuries to centres like Colin White and Shane Pinto have exacerbated what was already a thin forward group. The two veteran blue line additions that the team made in the offseason — Michael Del Zotto and Nick Holden — have failed to curb the Senators’ defensive woes.
Injuries, ineffectiveness, and a Covid scare following the team’s first road trip to the United States have all contributed to the team’s dismal start. These same factors also contributed to Matt Murray’s ineffectiveness. After investing a significant amount of money and term believing that he was the right goaltender to lead this group forward, Murray cleared waivers earlier this week and was optioned to Belleville.
All of the excitement and anticipation to watch this iteration of the Senators was centred around the play and growth of the young talent. I don’t believe any of that has waned, but many were hoping for some marked improvement in the performance of these players.
That isn’t to say there haven’t been improvements. There have been.
Drake Batherson’s season has been phenomenal. The right-winger has averaged more than a point-per-game scoring seven goals and registering a team-leading 16 points in 15 games. The most encouraging part of Drake’s production is that it isn’t buoyed by some unsustainable luck. Batherson’s scored on 15.9 percent of his shots, but that shooting percentage is only 1.1 percent higher than his career average (14.8).
After a season of struggles, Thomas Chabot has really bounced back. His modest offensive production (zero goals, eight assists) to this point has not reflected his positive contributions.
Using Evolving-Hockey’s ‘goals above replacement’ (GAR) and ‘wins above replacement’ (WAR) metrics that measure a player’s value, Chabot was worth 1.0 GAR and 0.2 WAR over 49 games played last season. Through his first 20 games this season, Chabot’s already been worth 5.7 GAR and 1.0 WAR.
Playing primarily with a competent all-around defender in Artyom Zub has been the biggest change. Unlike Nikita Zaitsev, Zub can defend AND move the puck well. The latter ability has allowed Chabot to rely on his partner more and play more efficiently. Rather than have to do everything himself or risk having Zaitsev turn the puck over, Chabot and Zub’s ability to break out of their own end successfully means that Chabot spends less time in his own end defending — which is not one of his game’s hallmark features.
Aside from these two players, the rest of Ottawa’s young core have plateaued. I mentioned Tkachuk’s slow start earlier, but at least that can be explained in part by the forward’s stalled contract negotiations.
The interesting wrinkle to Tkachuk’s career is that since the start of the 2020-21 season, Tkachuk’s defensive impacts at five-on-five have gone south per Hockeyviz.com’s data.
What has changed?
I’m not entirely sure. It could be a function of Tkachuk going out of his way trying to establish a physical presence. Instead of dialing it back and picking his spots, he may be guilty of chasing hits to assert himself. Perhaps it’s simply a function of him getting the ‘C’ and believing it’s what he needs to do to help get his team going. Whatever it is, it’s something I’m going to try and keep an eye on for the remainder of the season.
If Tkachuk’s guilty of trying to be too assertive, Stützle’s been guilty of deferring too much. In his sophomore season, Stützle’s metrics either closely resemble his outputs from last year or are down.
With only one goal under his belt, the most obvious is that his goal rate has plummeted to 0.17 per 60 minutes of ice time from 0.86.
According to NaturalStatTrick.com’s player data, some of Stützle’s individual rates are more subtlety down. Stützle’s shot rate (12.10 iCF/60), shot on goal rate (6.89 shots/60), expected goal rate (0.59 ixG/60) and scoring chance rate (7.06 iSCF/60) are all down from his rookie campaign.
Watching Stützle play, one of my biggest concerns is his strength. For a prospect who was renowned for his skating and edgework, he gets knocked off his feet quite a bit. Hopefully, the solution comes simply from improved strength and maturity.
But, between the production and poor defensive metrics, the organization has to be concerned with Stützle’s performance thus far. With so much of this rebuild’s success being predicated on his growth and development, the Senators need him to become a very good player.
Not every prospect’s development is linear. At just 19 years of age, there is still a ton of time for Stützle to adjust and reach a higher level than we have seen. And, I believe he has shown enough flashes of skill that he will eventually get there, but the Senators just have to figure out a way to help him.
The path thus far has seen Stützle be used on the wing to insulate him with fewer defensive responsibilities, but it has not worked well. Not having a competent second-line centre has hindered Stützle’s growth, but after playing him at centre for a fewer on their recent west coast swing, the Senators may do well to experiment with him at that position more often.
It may have been the small sample size, but for me, Stützle looked more comfortable with more puck touches. Playing centre should not only allow for more touches, but it should also give him more opportunities to showcase his playmaking ability.
Finding ways to get more from their young core is just one of the biggest challenges facing the coaching staff.
One of the others is teaching this group to play a more disciplined and structured defensive game.
The Senators give up an average of 34.4 shots per game (T-31st), but Evolving-Hockey.com ranks the Senators as giving up the most five-on-five shots per 60 minutes (63.66 CA/60). It is an obscenely high mark. To put it into a historical context, since websites began making tracking data available publicly at the start of the 2007-08 season, if Ottawa’s rate held up over the course of the season, it would be the seventh-worst rate ever recorded.
Which begs the question. Is this a talent issue? Should it be blamed on coaching?
The answer is that it probably is a little bit of both. D.J. Smith was hired as a player’s coach and it is widely reported that his players like playing for him. When he’s responsible for this group’s young core, having a younger coach who can relate to and insulate his players during their formative years is desirable. In saying that however, it is easy to question whether Smith is the right person to get more out of this group.
The same can be asked of Pierre Dorion. Is he the right person to be leading this team out of the rebuild?
Over the past few weeks, management has been conspicuously absent from the cameras and microphones — preferring to let D.J. Smith answer each and every question about the state of this team and its dismal performance.
Where is the accountability? Where is the leadership? Where is the willingness to take public ownership in the state of this franchise?
Dorion is the architect of Ottawa’s mess.
As empathetic as many are for the conditions that the general manager has to work under, others are willing to give him carte blanche for the repeated mistakes his front office makes.
Rather than embrace their identity as a small market team that needs to look at progressive ways to compete with their budget, this organization has stubbornly put the qualitative opinions of their scouts above all.
The results have been predictable. Too much money, term and assets have been spent acquiring veterans whose impacts have been limited. Bad transactions and signings should never be diminished or excused simply because this has been a rebuild.
They should foster critical analysis of why and how these mistakes are being made. And more importantly, they should spur change to ensure that similar mistakes are mitigated in the future.
Under Dorion’s watch, should we have confidence in his ability to grow this further? And at this stage of the franchise’s development, should he be allowed to?
Sitting in Isolation
During last night’s broadcast, Sportsnet made a point of showing Pierre Dorion sitting alone in the stands one section over from the rest of the front office staff.
The general manager may have been innocently distancing himself to make a phone call or send an email or text, but with the pressures ramping up in Ottawa, the optics may not look great.
World Junior Selection Camps
This week, Senators prospects Ridly Greig (Canada), Jake Sanderson (United States) and Tyler Kleven (United States) were named to their respective world junior selection camps. I have not seen any details pertaining to Finland’s camp, but the expectation is that Roby Jarventie and Leevi Merilainen will both be there.
The NCC Launches Request for LeBreton Proposals
Yesterday the NCC announced that it was launching a request for expressions of interest regarding two parcels of the land at LeBreton Flats.
The commission is looking for creative proposals that will feature major attractions that will encourage people to frequent the area.
Most interestingly, the “director of the LeBreton project says the NCC is open to a possible arena for the Ottawa Senators on the federally-owned land.”
In response to this news, Bruce Garrioch appeared on ‘Question Period’ during tonight’s broadcast of the Senators/Hurricanes game and indicated that Senators owner Eugene Melnyk is still interested in the land as a prospective site for a new arena.
Unfortunately, with the way that Garrioch phrased his response to the idea, it sounds like the only way Melnyk will be interested is if he leverages his hockey team to ensure that a developer builds an arena at no cost to him.