Breaking: Senators Waive Nikita Zaitsev (and Magnus Hellberg)
From the moment the Ottawa Senators made the trade at the 2019 NHL Draft, today’s news felt inevitable.
Last night on Twitter, I joked that as a baseball fan, someone will have to make him rewatch the scene from ‘Moneyball’ in which Brad Pitt’s character, general manager Billy Beane, trades Carlos Pena to rid manager Art Howe of one of his favourite toys. Today, the Senators announced that they have waived defenceman Nikita Zaitsev alongside goaltender Magnus Hellberg.
Whether this is the last we see of Zaitsev in a Senators jersey remains to be seen. Personally, I will believe the Senators are finally done with him once they give rookie Shane Pinto his familiar no. 22 jersey.
Why now?
Jacob Bernard-Docker had an impressive 2022-23 debut with the Senators last night and due to the team’s poor start, they looked at an internal option who has a chance to grow and develop this season. Putting Zaitsev on waivers may signal that JBD will be around for the rest of the season or it could also mark the possibility that Artyom Zub may be ready to return from injury. Or, it could simply be a formality so the club can send Zaitsev to Belleville.
Just seven games into his third season with the club, the likelihood of a team claiming Zaitsev is remote. Willingly absorbing a $4.5 million cap hit through the remainder of the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons just isn’t palatable unless there are significant futures pieces to make a transaction worthwhile.
Claiming him at the simple cost of money does not make sense for any of the other 31 NHL clubs. Zaitsev’s simply too expensive and too ineffective to merit serious consideration — even with this past summer’s $2 million signing bonus accounting for almost half of Zaitsev’s cap hit.
According to Evolving-Hockey’s ‘Goals Above Replacement’ (GAR) and ‘Wins Above Replacement’ metrics, Zaitsev’s provided negligible value since arriving in Ottawa. In 182 regular season games for the Sens, he has been worth -10.6 GAR and -1.9 WAR. These metrics attempt to assign a “total value to each player, which represents how much that player contributed to their team in a single number.” So, in other words, given the same amount of ice time, had a replacement-level player (league average) defender replaced Zaitsev’s ice time, it would have improved the Senators by 10.6 goals and almost two wins across those 182 games.
This season has been a tire fire for the Senators when Zaitsev is on the ice.
From HockeyViz.com’s data, it is pretty evident that there is a pretty significant swing in the Senators’ defensive aptitude when Nikita Zaitsev is on and off the ice. At five-on-five, the Senators allow almost two fewer expected goals per 60 minutes of ice time than when Zaitsev is off and resemble a slightly above-average defensive team.
The unfortunate part of Zaitsev’s game is that his defensive skills aren’t terrible in the sense that he’s competitive and works hard in battles for pucks. It is just that whatever positive value he creates off this aspect of his game is wholly undermined by his inability to move the puck effectively. When the puck is on Zaitsev’s stick, plays go to die. Whether it is a true talent problem or the result of a broken player who has lost all confidence in his own abilities, Zaitsev struggles to recover pucks and effectively transition the play from defence to offence.
Taking on his contract and relieving a division rival of their problem was one of the most shortsighted moves the Senators have made during the Pierre Dorion era. The strategy of having a veteran that the team could plug in on the back end during the rebuild was fine, but eventually, the cost of Zaitsev’s contract was predictably going to come back and hurt the team at a time when it should be reallocating the salary to more talented alternatives. Taking on Zaitsev’s contract was never worth the price to acquire Connor Brown as part of the package. What was odd was that Dorion made it clear after the Guy Boucher era that he would be more critical and diligent as a general manager — preferring not to listen too intently to the personnel requests of a coach who had familiarity with specific players.
Now the Senators are stuck with his contract and there is no guarantee of how they can rid themselves of it. Hell, there isn’t even a guarantee that Zaitsev will be sent to Belleville to enjoy the Michael Del Zotto experience. A buyout scenario is not very realistic either considering that Zaitsev is owed another $2.0 million signing bonus next summer. If that route was pursued, the Senators would only be able to buy out his $2.5 million base salary at two-thirds of the cost spread out over the course of the next two years. CapFriendly’s calculator shows that the Senators would save $1.66 million in the first year of the deal before it cost them $833,334 in that second year.
Like it or not, the Senators will be on the hook for Zaitsev’s signing bonus next summer, but after that, maybe it becomes easier to move his salary and cap hit to a rebuilding team that is trying to tank. Moving future assets to entice a team to take him on might not be the most palatable thing, especially when his contract is so close to ending, but it’s perhaps the easiest thing to do.
The one outside hope is that Zaitsev becomes interested in returning home and mutually agreeing to terminate his contract so that he can return to Russia. This option represents the biggest longshot, but stranger things have happened.
Hellberg Waived Too
After turning in a hell of a performance and post-game interview against the Stars on October 24th, I was hoping that Magnus Hellberg would get another opportunity or two in goal to show what he was capable of.
That chance never came and now Hellberg has been placed on waivers. Given his performance, pedigree and success overseas in the KHL, it would not really be a surprise to see some team put in a claim. It is not to hard to envision a team with goaltending issues like the Maple Leafs putting in a claim to roll the dice on Hellberg’s upside.
Senators Braintrust in Montreal Tonight
General manager Pierre Dorion flew to Winnipeg last week to take in Thursday’s action between the Jets and Canadiens, so this would mark the second time in a week that he’s been scouting a Canadiens game. That he is accompanied by assistant general manager Ryan Bowness and pro scout Rob Murphy is an interesting wrinkle, but given the proximity of Ottawa and Montreal, maybe it’s just an opportunity to watch other teams with members of your staff.
Looking at Montreal’s roster, I do not see a defenceman that the Senators would pursue in a trade. If I had to wager, there is probably greater likelihood that the team is examining impending unrestricted free agent Sean Monahan.
Despite news that the five doctors Josh Norris consulted for his undisclosed shoulder injury recommended rehab over a shoulder procedure, Norris will spend some significant time on the shelf before making a return — assuming he suffers no setbacks and is able to return at all.
The Senators have been linked to Monahan before, but his game has been derailed by injuries in recent seasons. Hip and wrist problems have negatively impacted his performance and in 13 games for the Canadiens heading into tonight’s action, he has registered two goals and six points. Interestingly, Monahan’s defensive impact has improved significantly over the past three seasons, but with a cap hit of $6.35 million and a real salary of $6.0 million, that is a lot of money to commit to a player whose best offensive years are behind him.
It feels weird saying that about a player who is still only 28 years old, but that is what significant injuries can do to a player.
Perhaps if the Canadiens ate a significant portion of his salary or were offering some sweeteners as part of a larger deal, the Senators might be better off looking at alternatives.