Brannstrom's Improved Play and What It Could Mean for the Future
As soon as Erik Brannstrom became property of the Ottawa Senators, expectations ran high.
Understandably, whenever a player is packaged with a 2020 second-round pick and is viewed as the centrepiece of a return that sends one of the best two-way wingers in the game the other way, that will happen.
Brannstrom never needed his general manager to throw gas on the fire. Proclaiming that “(fans) don’t know Erik Brannstrom,” and projecting him to be a “star” whilie stating that the organization had “never traded for a player" of Brannstrom's calibre only amplified the pressure.
Over the top effusive praise has been a hallmark of the PR Dorion era, and even in this instance where a defence mechanism was triggered by a widely panned return, no one’s best interests were served.
Now 22 years of age, Brannstrom has struggled to develop into a regular let alone the star his general manager once envisioned.
He has played in parts of the last four seasons in Ottawa, but he’s never played in more than 31 regular season games in a campaign. Some of the circumstances are out of his control. Listed at 5’9” and 181 lbs by Hockey-Reference.com, Brannstrom will never be mistaken for the prototypical defensive defencemen that this organization has a tendency to gravitate towards. Nor was it his fault that the organization already had offensive puck-moving defencemen in Thomas Chabot and Victor Mete on one-way deals or that management felt compelled to bring in more veteran left-shooting defencemen during the offseason.
After starting the season in the minors, Brannstrom was eventually recalled, but he suffered a broken hand in November that sidelined him until the new year.
Since returning on January 1st, Brannstrom’s been one of the team’s most consistent defencemen. His one assist in the team’s six games represents some modest production, but it does not tell the entire story.
When Brannstrom has been on the ice at five-on-five, the Senators have generated some of their best on-ice results.
According to NaturalStatTrick.com’s data, the Senators have generated 52.26 percent of the shots (CF%), 57.41 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 57.0 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) and 56.67 percent of the high-danger shots (HDCF%).
With the exception of the team’s January 18th game against Buffalo, the Senators have generated more than half the five-on-five shots when Brannstrom has been on the ice. Unfortunately, he has been a bit unlucky in the sense that the Senators have only generated 37.5 percent of the total goals with him on the ice.
Perhaps the most obvious sign that Brannstrom is earning a place is through the comments made by head coach D.J. Smith.
Based off the finish to the 2020-21 season, it would have been easy to assume from the team results and his regular playing time that Brannstrom had finally arrived. But, Brannstrom’s underlying numbers down the stretch last season were not particularly strong per Hockeyviz.com.
After the Senators acquired Michael Del Zotto and Nick Holden in the offseason, it became clear that the Senators were uncomfortable with the idea of dressing two undersized offensive defencemen in their lineup regularly.
As small as this recent six-game sample size is, it’s clear that his head coach is finally starting to trust him. Not only did Brannstrom logged over 20 minutes of ice-time in each of the team’s past three games, he is getting a chance to play on his off-side alongside Thomas Chabot.
The bulk of the 94:03 of ice-time that Brannstrom has spent at five-on-five over the past six games has mostly been spent with Josh Brown (47:06). His next most frequent partner over this stretch of games has been Chabot. They have taken some regular shifts together in five of these games accumulating 27:54 together. The Senators have not scored a goal during the time they have played together (0 GF, 2 GA), but the territorial shot numbers have been pretty good.
My instinct when I saw their ice-time together was to assume that D.J. Smith was using Chabot/Brannstrom strictly as a combination when the Senators were trailing and looking to generate some offence. Surprisingly, the two played almost as much together when the score was tied (9:58) as they did when the Senators were trailing (13:25).
If D.J. Smith is finally starting to trust Brannstrom, it bodes well. Not only does he bring a sorely needed puck-moving element to Ottawa’s bottom-four, he’s being afforded the opportunity to prove that he can be relied on to play on the right side.
If he can continue to play well, that kind of flexibility will not only help endear himself to this coaching staff, but also to potential suitors around the league.
For as well as Brannstrom moves the puck, I still believe his defensive shortcomings limit his upside. For a player who has only 71 career games of NHL experience under his belt, it may seem weird to draw anything conclusively from a 22-year old who has played so irregularly.
The challenge for him will be to continue to improve on other side of the puck, but the question the Senators may have to ask themselves is, “Is Brannstrom someone that we will ever feel comfortable giving top-four minutes to?”
Fortunately, the Senators may not even have to worry about that thanks to the presence of Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot on the left side. Perhaps there is a chance that Brannstrom could fit in on the right side, but maybe he only tops out in Ottawa as a bottom-pairing offensive defenceman who can play on the second power play unit.
There is value in having that kind of player, but Brannstrom’s headed towards restricted free agency this summer. If he continues to develop his game and starts producing points, maybe that long-term projection changes. Everyone would certainly embrace a world in which Brannstrom’s continued development would provide the Senators with more quality depth. At the same time, in looking at his skillset, shortcomings and need for a new contract, it is easy to wonder if Brannstrom might offer the Senators more value as a trade asset.
That isn’t the future anyone envisioned when Brannstrom acquired for Mark Stone, but if he can continue to play well down the stretch, that is a no-lose scenario. He either becomes quality depth or an asset the Senators can move to address an area of weakness.