Anton Forsberg is Crushing It With the Trade Deadline Approaching
Anton Forsberg’s last nine appearances have provided some of the best goaltending the Senators have enjoyed in recent years.
For the sake of clarification, the following stats are Forsberg’s aggregate stats accumulated across all on-ice situations.
Over the last month, Forsberg has put together a 5-2-1 record, a goals against average of 2.08 and a .943 save percentage. NaturalStatTrick’s data indicates that Forsberg should have been on the ice for a projected 24.44 expected goals while allowing only 17. Using NaturalStatTrick’s goals saved above average metric (GSAA), Forsberg has 11.22 goals saved above average. Only Igor Shesterkin, the frontrunner for this year’s Vezina Trophy, has a better GSAA (14.82) during this span of time. And, Shesterkin (.959) and Jeremy Swayman (.946) are the only goaltenders who have stopped a greater percentage of shots.
It is a ridiculously hot stretch of games that comes on the heels of Matt Murray’s strong month that lasted from the middle of January into mid-February.
How do their numbers stack up?
With the exception of the GSAA, the numbers are pretty damn close. Considering how Forsberg’s recent stretch has arrived at a time when Murray’s consistency and health have hit some bumps in the road, the timing could not be better.
In the last year of his contract that takes him to unrestricted free agency and pays him $900,000, Forsberg has set him and the Senators up nicely. As a known asset that the organization is familiar with, the team could negotiate a multi-year extension with him. Having rewarded Andrew Hammond and Mike Condon for their play under similar circumstances, the organization has a history of retaining its backup goaltenders.
Aside from a two-year agreement with the Chicago Blackhawks that paid him one-way money in the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons, Forsberg has spent the bulk of his career signing one-year deals. Should his strong play continue, he will have the opportunity to leverage his free-agent status. Whether it is with the Senators or his handpicked destination of choice, he should have the opportunity to cash-in and make significantly more than the $900,000 that he’s earning this season.
Goaltending is such a volatile position. Hell, just a few weeks ago, everyone in this city was celebrating the reformation of Matt Murray —penciling him into next year’s lineup and banking on him to be the no. 1 guy. Now with Forsberg’s stretch play, recency bias is kicking in and some fans are ready to send him packing.
With goaltenders, things have a tendency to be incredibly fluid. One moment, Joey Daccord future looks bright, the next Filip Gustavsson strengthens his profile as the goaltender of the future by excelling in games that no one ever anticipated him playing in. And now we’re shuffling the deck chairs wondering which veteran the Senators will go with or whether Gustavsson will even be a part of the picture next season.
Things have a tendency to change in a hurry and even in mentioning names like Hammond or Condon, they can serve as cautionary tales of investments gone wrong. Now obviously every situation and player is unique and unlike those two players, Forsberg may be able to avoid an injury that derailed their respective careers. At the same time, it is never foolish to identify the risks associated with inking backup goaltenders to relatively expensive multi-year deals.
They can be problematic and that has to weigh on the mind of general manager Pierre Dorion.
In his position, he should be in the driver’s seat.
With only 64 goaltending jobs in the entire NHL, quality backup goaltenders are available each offseason. In theory, Ottawa’s goaltending situation could be an enticing one for any prospective free agent. Depending on what the Senators decide to do with Matt Murray given his inconsistent play and inability to stay on the ice, there’s an opportunity for a guy to come in and steal the bulk of the starts here. On an up-and-coming team, I’d imagine there would be a lot of incentive for someone to look at this situation, sign a short-term deal here hoping to cash in on a bigger extension.
Dorion can afford to be patient and take things right to the deadline. If a counterpart with some struggling goaltenders has a need and wants to roll the dice on Forsberg’s stretch of games, Dorion could leverage that and extract a significant trade return. It certainly would not hurt to solicit offers and listen to the market ahead of the Monday, March 21st deadline.
Dorion does have the opportunity to be creative. He could negotiate a trade for a conditional pick based on performance. And, with the Senators already owning 10 selections in the 2022 NHL Draft, maybe there’s a chance Dorion can target a 2023 pick hoping that because it is further down the road, teams will be more amenable to parting with a higher quality pick.
If the offers are not great, Dorion will have no obligation to move Forsberg. He could hold onto him and continue to evaluate whether or not the organization wants to keep him in the fold.