A Predictable Outcome: Jacques Martin replaces the fired D.J. Smith

From the moment that the organization announced that Jacques Martin was hired as a senior advisor to the coaching staff, the clock started ticking.

Management spun the decision as a supportive one which had D.J. Smith’s blessing. As if the head coach, who was hired by the previous regime, was left with another choice.

What was he going to say? No?

Make no mistake, Martin’s looming presence as a veteran voice who had experienced success in this market was a direct threat to Smith’s job, but if it afforded Smith an extended window of time to turn this ship around, he had to take it. And, for a group whose defensive structure deteriorates when the opposition creates sustained pressure, Martin’s strength as an X’s and O’s tactician was an asset on Smith’s staff.

The experience got off to a great start.

In the Senators’ first three games, the team convincingly outplayed the Maple Leafs, Rangers and Red Wings. The Senators generated more than 50 percent of the five-on-five shots (CF%) and expected goals (xGF%) per NaturalStatTrick.

• 2023-12-05 vs Rangers: 56.38 CF%, 56.76 xGF%

• 2023-12-07 vs Maple Leafs: 52.68 CF%, 65.98 xGF%

• 2023-12-09 vs Red Wings: 59.14 CF%, 53.81 xGF%

Whether it was correlation or causation, everyone just wanted to believe that this change was responsible for the improved performance. And, after the Senators outplayed Toronto but were outdone by the goaltenders, you couldn’t help but feel that the Martin influence was real.

At the very least, D.J. Smith was credited for making some subtle changes which led to positive results. In an article for The Athletic, Ian Mendes highlighted those changes.

Smith and his staff identified two key areas where they wanted the club to improve. They wanted Senators players to hang onto more pucks in the offensive zone and felt too many turnovers were occurring beyond the other team’s blue line. And they wanted to be sharper, crisper and more organized when breaking the puck out of their own zone.

Over the team’s next four games, the wheels fell off.

The Senators were outscored 19-10 and failed to win one game. On Monday, D.J. Smith predictably paid the price for it with his job. Assistant coach Davis Payne was also relieved of his duties.

Enter Martin who spent the past two weeks integrating and familiarizing himself with the coaches, players, staff and organization. His return represents a distinct change from when he inherited the head coaching role during the 1995-96 season. That group’s core had failed to establish itself. My parents were season ticket holders during the formative years of the franchise and I remember my dad taking to the first game after Martin was hired. It was a late January game with the Senators taking on the Penguins during Jaromir Jagr’s prime. Radek Bonk, the third overall pick in the 1994 draft was struggling. Like most players who enter the league playing on bad teams, the young centre was having trouble showcasing the consistency and productivity that made him such a valued prospect. Against the Penguins, Martin used Bonk to match up against his fellow countryman and he played one of his most inspired games in a Senators jersey.

Productivity has never really been an issue for any pieces of Ottawa’s young core, but like he did with Bonk, Martin will need to instill confidence back in this group.

The Senators have the offensive firepower to score goals, but they need to make significant inroads with their defensive game. Injuries and bad luck have beset the Senators of some talent and depth for extended periods, but even when healthy, poor defensive play and inattention to detail have plagued them.

Many fans believe that a successful season hinges on the Senators reaching the postseason. Entering last night’s game in Arizona, Hockeyviz listed the Senators’ playoff odds at a lowly 12 percent.

The Senators have 55 games left to put themselves back in the playoff picture. They currently sit 13 points back of the Eastern Conference’s second wild card slot, but there is a lot of runway left with the Senators still having several games in hand. If it takes 95 points to get into the postseason, the Senators would have to capture 73 points over their remaining 55 games. To meet that threshold, they would have to carry a .664 points percentage the rest of the way. To put that into perspective, there are only six teams in the league that have played at that level through the first quarter of the season: the Rangers, Bruins, Kings, Knights, Canucks and Stars.

The odds are long, but after acknowledging that, we have to ask ourselves what will make the remainder of this season successful.

For a lot of people, anything short of the postseason will be a lost year. If the Senators fall short, it will represent seven years since the team reached the playoffs last. I understand and empathize with the frustrations. This rebuild should be a lot further ahead than it is, but if the team fails to reach the postseason, I still believe the remainder of the season can be successful. It will just necessitate Jacques Martin building a foundation for sustained success.

For far too long, this organization has relied upon offence and playing high-event hockey at the expense of its commitment to defence. “Success” should be measured on the development of this team’s two-way play — which feels weird considering how long Smith had been here and how far along into the rebuild we are.

In experiencing the first Jacques Martin era, one of my expectations is that he will demand more responsible play out of his forwards. It feels safe to assume the days of seeing the wingers fly the zone while anticipating turnovers are over. Better puck support and support of the defencemen were hallmarks of the first Martin era. Another thing to keep an eye on is how Martin will craft his lineup. Rather than relying on top-heavy skill lines, he exhibited a preference to spread the offensive talent throughout his top three lines to create more depth and balance.

Perhaps the most intriguing element to Monday’s change is that the lens now shifts from a focus on the coaching staff to the players. A recurring theme when analyzing most of the talented players within Ottawa’s lineup was, “Well, I’d like to see how (Player A) does under a new coach.”

Now is our chance.

The goaltending can certainly improve. Using Evolving-Hockey’s data, Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo currently rank fourth and fifth-last in goals saved above expected amongst all qualified goaltenders. When this team has needed a save or three, neither guy has reliably been able to step up consistently and deliver the kind of performance that a competitive team needs. At the team level, the Senators’ -13.42 goals saved above expected is the worst mark in the league.

Goaltending has exacerbated the Senators’ defensive play and hopefully, it will regress positively. With Korpisalo locked up to a five-year extension, they need it to.

While the Senators’ goaltending can improve, the two-way play of the young core has to improve if this team is going to take its expected next steps. The pressure will be on Martin to get the buy-in and imbue his players with a sense of responsibility and attention to the details. If he does, success should follow. There is simply too much underlying talent here for this team to struggle as much as it has been.

If the struggles continue, it is fair to believe there is a chance that management will consider shaking up the core.

While Jacques Martin’s return was expected, the announcement that the legendary Daniel Alfredsson would be joining his staff came as a surprise.

Every expectation was that Alfie would ultimately fill some kind of player development role. And, he may still. I just feel that it is probably better for him and the organization if he fulfills a long-term role where his job security is never in question. In saying that, to see him added to the staff though adds a layer of comfort. As a well-respected person who enjoyed a hall-of-fame career playing under Martin, perhaps Alfie is the perfect buffer between the coach and players who hold him in high regard. He should be able to befriend the players while helping reinforce the principles that Martin expects.

A Rough First Night

Jacques Martin’s first game back behind the bench started so well. The Senators staked themselves to a 3-0 lead on the strength of Angus Crookshank’s first career goal. A power play marker by Josh Norris eight seconds into the team’s first power play helped reaffirm the power of having Daniel Alfredsson behind the bench, but the Senators’ lead did not hold for long.

Some unlucky bounces, a goal that followed a blatantly obvious crosscheck to the back of Vladimir Tarasenko and some weak goaltending garnered most of the attention. Ultimately, it was the Coyotes’ strong five-on-five play that allowed them to come away with the win.

It is tough to be competitive when you are only generating 38.46 percent of the shots (CF%), 29.79 percent of the scoring chances, and 29.74 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) at five-on-five.

Martin has his work cut out for him.

Other News and Notes:

• There have been a lot of good stories coming out in the aftermath of the D.J. Smith firing. The local media have done an excellent job articulating how well respected Smith was by anyone who came into contact with him. Bruce Garrioch had a nice anecdote about how Smith and Payne were drinking in the hotel bar following his dismissal where every single player came to see him to send him their best. The Athletic’s Ian Mendes spoke highly of Smith in the story he penned acknowledging that the organization blackballed him for four years. Despite a directive to shun him, Smith maintained a professional relationship with the well-respected Mendes.

• In an awesome interview, D.J. Smith was on TSN 1200 this morning to discuss his firing and experiences with the Senators. I encourage you all to listen to it here.

• On Tuesday’s episode of the Jeff Marek Show, Marek and Elliotte Friedman spitballed names for the Senators’ next head coaching position. They mentioned John Gruden, the current head coach of the Toronto Marlies, and Jay McKee, the current head coach of the OHL’s Brantford Bulldogs, as obvious candidates. Both men have obvious connections to Michael Andlauer.