Senators Select Carter Yakemchuk with the 7th Overall Selection
Ottawa’s blue line and farm system unmistakably got a hell of a lot more talented.
The Senators drafted right-shot defenceman Carter Yakemchuk with their seventh overall selection.
I was curious regarding which direction the organization would go in with their pick. After the graduation of so many of their top prospects to the parent roster and there being several holes to fill, there were several avenues they could explore. The organization’s most obvious issue was the blue line, specifically its right side.
The first-round picks they have made at that position within the last six years just have not panned out. Lassi Thomson signed a deal to play in Sweden this summer and Jacob Bernard-Docker has not progressed as hoped. JBD did spend his first season playing regularly with the Senators in 2023-24, so there is still time to develop into a competent defensive defenceman. At 23 years old with parts of four professional seasons under his belt, there is a chance that his upside is not much higher than what he showed last season.
So, there was a need on the right side and heading into last night, I wondered whether the Senators would logically take a defender or pivot to draft a skilled forward. As the early picks came off the board — Celebrini to San Jose, Levshunov to Chicago, Sennecke to Anaheim, Lindstrom to Columbus, Demidov to Montreal — I believed there was a great chance a skilled forward like Tij Iginla would be available at seven.
Thanks to the questions surrounding Josh Norris’ health and with Claude Giroux’s age, adding more young offensive talent to the forward mix would have made sense. Iginla was intriguing because of his skill, goal-scoring ability, bloodline and a young birthdate. As one of the younger players in the draft who had an incredible second half last season, it was easy to believe he would be one of the best prospects from this class a year from now.
When Utah nabbed him with the sixth overall pick, it essentially affirmed that the Senators would address the blue line. The Senators could have taken Berkly Catton, but one of their biggest organizational strengths, health permitting, is down the middle with Tim Stützle, Josh Norris, Shane Pinto and potentially Ridly Greig.
In taking Yakemchuk, the Senators addressed their biggest need while rolling the dice on a high-upside play.
Ottawa’s blue line and farm system just got a hell of a lot more talented.
Listed at 6’3” and 203 lbs, Yakemchuk is a big and rangy defenceman who put up 30 goals and 71 points playing with the WHL’s Calgary Hitmen. The defender put a remarkable 275 shots on goal.
Those are gaudy offensive numbers, but it makes you want to learn how much of that damage was done on the power play. Yakemchuk anchored the first unit where he tallied 10 goals and added 21 assists. It is encouraging that a lot of his production is being done at even strength while playing for a Calgary team that missed the postseason.
The Athletic’s Corey Pronman had glowing praise of Yakemchuk, his third highest-rated prospect, leading into the draft.
“Yakemchuk was a top defenseman in the WHL this season. He's a 6-3 right-shot defenseman who has legit game-breaking skill. He constantly breaks down opponents one-on-one and can pull off a lot of highlight reel moments. That he skates well and can attack with his skill makes him so difficult to stop as he often dances by checkers. His skating stride isn't technically perfect. It can break down at times with his legs starting to flail at the end of shifts, but it's a powerful stride and he often pulls away from pressure. Yakemchuk has a bullet shot from the point. He is more of a shot than a pass threat, and while he can see the ice, his vision isn't at the same level as his shot or stickhandling. He can make stops due to his feet, length and strong physicality but his defensive play and consistency in that area can use work. Yakemchuk has star potential and projects to be a major minutes player in the NHL with a lot of offensive upside.”
After the selection, general manager Steve Staios told reporters, “These types of players are hard to find.”
“A 6-foot-3 defenceman who not only brings offence, but he’s got some grit to his game,” explained the general manager. “We still feel like there’s a lot of rawness to his game as well, so we feel like the potential is really, really high for Carter. A great character kid.”
The Senators are banking that his rawness means there is a ton of untapped potential for their organization to unlock. It also means that there is risk attached to his selection.
As the second defenceman who was taken in the first round, Yakemchuk’s development and performance will be weighed against the peers who were taken in his range.
The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler addressed this element in his assessment of last night’s first round.
“I understand the Yakemchuk pick. We’re talking about a 30-goal, 6-foot-3, physical, extremely talented, offensive right-shot defenseman for an organization that has a clear left-to-right imbalance. I don’t love it, but I get it. The way the draft played out, I would have been all over Zeev Buium (even though he’s a lefty) or Zayne Parekh (whom I believe is even more talented than Yakemchuk). The Sens are taking a calculated gamble that Yakemchuk’s feet and decision-making/reads defensively will make progress. If they do, he’s going to be a rock star. I think the pick comes with some risk, though.”
As a big and physical defender, it has to be concerning that Yakemchuk’s biggest issue is his defence. On the other hand, it is not unique to say that it will be paramount for Yakemchuk’s defensive development to improve. If he can improve his reads and Calgary improves their talent level and structure around Yakemchuk, that will help his development.
The Senators believe in his size, skill and raw ability, but if that raw ability does not change, they will open themselves up to criticism with the pick.
Top-10 picks should not come along that often, so the organization needs to hit on that selection. That rings especially true after the Senators traded a top-12 selection in the last two drafts and had Tyler Boucher’s injuries adversely affect his development.
Yakemchuk’s development will inevitably be measured against that of Zeev Buium (12th overall, Minnesota), Sam Dickinson (11th overall, San Jose) and Zayne Parekh (9th overall, Calgary).
Byron Bader’s Hockey Prospecting ‘NHLe’ tool projects a prospect’s future success based on his offensive performance. According to Bader’s statistical modeling that uses current production and historical data to help predict whether a player will have future success.
“NHLes are used as a way to standardize player’s offensive score over time. We’re looking for higher numbers at younger ages. Those are the biggest indicators of future star-potential and becoming an NHLer, in general.”
Buium and Parekh projected more favourably using Bader’s model.
A defenceman’s success is not just a function of how much offence they create, but this model affirms that these prospects will be intrinsically linked.
At least in the case of Buium or Dickinson, I wondered whether their handedness would influence Ottawa’s decision. As left-shot defencemen, their selection would have fuelled some conversations in the nation’s capital. Steve Staios has already addressed and denied this offseason’s speculation that Thomas Chabot is available. Taking a left-shot defensive prospect would have invited more discussion and awkwardly cast shadows on Chabot’s long-term future with the organization.
In Parekh’s case, for as dynamic and flashy as his offence is, his play away from the puck is concerning.
From Corey Pronman:
“The big issue with Parekh is his play away from the puck. He gives half-efforts at times defensively and doesn't engage physically. I've seen worse defenders though. He picks off a lot of passes and makes stops but will likely never be a tough minutes defender. He projects as a top pair/PP1 type who may need to be deployed away from opponents’ top forwards.”
For anyone who has watched the Senators’ blue line and listened to the front office’s philosophies, Parekh never felt like a fit.
One of the glaring issues for the Senators has been their defence’s ability to curb play in the defensive end. There are many ways to defend, but in this team’s recent seasons, most of it has been predicated on positional play and active sticks. As a relatively non-physical group, the Senators often get into trouble in their end because they struggle to win battles and assert dominance in front of the net or along the wall. I never believed that to be a reflection of the team’s effort. Players like Erik Brannstrom work incredibly hard in the defensive end, but I believe with Ottawa’s blue line, they are an undersized and relatively soft group.
They are not hard to play against.
Compounding that problem is that the veterans they have often acquired to address these shortcomings have stunk. Every physical or bigger defenceman that the Senators have brought in has struggled. Part of that is a function of their defensive reads another function of that is their ability to move the puck. If you can win a battle or create puck separation, that success is undermined by their ability to move the puck. If you constantly turn the puck over in your own end or neutral zone, you will inevitably spend the majority of your shift defending.
Reports have surfaced that the Senators are trying to trade Erik Brannstrom before deciding on whether they will qualify him as restricted free agent right. Between this, the Senators’ reported interest in Chris Tanev and the selection of Carter Yakemchuk, I believe we are seeing a philosophical shift within the organization.bh