Michael Andlauer and Steve Staios inherited a mess and they are digging their way out of it.
Minutes before the start of tonight’s game seven of the Stanley Cup Final, the Senators and Bruins stole some of the limelight by collaborating on a doozy of a trade.
The Senators dealt the 25th overall pick of the 2024 NHL Draft originally belonging to Boston, Joonas Korpisalo (with 25% of his contract retained) and Mark Kastelic for goaltender Linus Ullmark.
Take it away, Adam Coplan.
The 25 percent retained on Korpisalo’s contract means the Senators will pay $1.0 million of his salary in each of the next four seasons.
To put that into perspective, here is what a prospective buyout would have cost the Senators as two-thirds of the contract was spread out over the next eight seasons:
2024-2025: $333,333
2025-2026: $833,333
2026-2027: $1,833,333
2027-2028: $2,333,333
2028-2029: $1,333,333
2029-2030: $1,333,333
2030-2031: $1,333,333
2031-2032: $1,333,333
Instead of the buyout, today’s trade saved the Senators $6.67 million in dead cap money and carries half the life of the term. That is a massive consideration that cannot be understated.
Granted, it would have been greater if Dorion and the same regime that acquired and rewarded Matt Murray with a gaudy extension were not permitted to sign another middling goaltender with the franchise’s sale looming over their heads, but here we are.
Make no mistake, this was tidy business.
For Steve Staios’ first trade, it is an encouraging sign. It rewards fans’ faith and signals to them that this management group can efficiently manage and navigate difficult paths to come away with obvious wins.
To trade a first-round pick when the franchise has a depleted farm system and is set to lose a future first for Dorion’s handling of the Evgenii Dadonov no-trade list to Vegas may sting, but it is the 25th overall selection in an average draft. Good players will inevitably be selected in that range (or later), but there is always a chance that the player Ottawa took there might not pan.
The organization also has assets they may be willing to move to acquire more futures. Jakob Chychrun was identified earlier today as someone the organization is looking to move for a first and second-round pick.
As much as I liked Mark Kastelic as a fourth line centre, his projected ceiling is a fourth liner. He is big, can efficiently control the puck work the cycle game down low, and win faceoffs (career 56.3 percent), but it is not like the Senators traded Nick Paul here. At 25 years old, the version of Mark Kastelic is ultimately what he is - a replaceable fourth line centre.
I have not even reached the part where the Senators acquired someone who has established himself as a quality NHL goaltender.
As I tweeted earlier tonight, Korpisalo and Ullmark have played parts of nine NHL seasons in their respective careers. In seven of those, Ullmark has posted a .915 save percentage or better. Korpisalo, just one.
According to Evolving-Hockey’s data, Ullmark is 12th in the NHL in the number of goals saved above expected over the last six seasons.
The goaltenders ranking ahead of him represent the best individual talents or ones who have played behind some good teams.
If any risk exists in Ullmark’s game, it rests in the fact that he has benefited from playing behind a strong defensive squad in Boston.
He won’t share that luxury, at least right away in Ottawa. The Senators made inroads under interim head coach Jacques Martin, but there will be a learning curve and adjustment to their new head coach Travis Green. The organization believes it will take measured steps towards playing a more complete 200’ game, but until that occurs consistently during games, it is all just lip service.
At the same time, how do you criticize a goaltender for playing well on a good team? To his credit, he has played very well in Boston. HockeyViz has an excellent career visual contrasting Ullmark’s performance against the expected goal results.
He has outperformed the expectations and it is a trend the Senators have to be banking on.
A report from Elliotte Friedman tonight indicated that there is an expectation that Ullmark will enter the season without a contract extension, so that is a concern.
A quick glance at the unrestricted free agent goalies available next year reveals a pretty weak crop. So, it is hard to blame Ullmark for rolling the dice and betting on himself.
If there is a silver lining, it lies in the belief that Ullmark reportedly waived his no-trade clause to come to Ottawa. In a worst-case scenario, the lack of an extension could give the Senators some leverage if Ullmark does not play well or the team falls out of the playoff picture. They could pivot and move him at the deadline if he is not willing to re-sign. It would not be ideal, but it still falls into the whole, “Hey, it’s still better than riding out Korpisalo for four more seasons.”
In a best-case scenario, Ullmark thrives and enjoys his time in Ottawa. Maybe he won’t get his post-win hugs from Jeremy Swayman, but he might feel the love from the fans and embrace Ottawa and all that it has to offer.
love the trade, sad that kastelic had to go but still - exciting stuff.
Seems like a good move by the Sens. Maybe Alfie can have a side-gig this year getting Ullmark into padel to increase his odds of re-signing.